Volatility After Fed Statement Sets Stage for Stock Market Highs
NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Trader speculation that the Fed will delay raising interest rates, based on Chairwoman Janet Yellen's assurance that removing the word "patient" from a policy statement doesn't mean the central bank will become impatient, sets the stage for new highs in the stock market before the end of this month.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, the Standard & Poor's 500 Index and the Nasdaq Composite Index had strong rebounds following the Fed's two-day statement this week, without setting all-time or multiyear intraday highs. Following a setback for the Dow 30 and S&P 500 on Thursday, here's the technical set-up for the remainder of March.
The Dow Industrial Average (17,979 at Thursday's close) has a high probability of ending the week above its key weekly moving average at 17,841. The Dow 30 has declining weekly momentum, with a reading of 77.02 dropping below the overbought threshold of 80.00, which should limit the upside. If the Dow 30 ends the week above a key technical level of 18,102, the upside is to 18,328, which is a key level on technical charts until the end of June. That would be above the high of 18,288 set on March 2.
The S&P 500 (2,089.3 at Thursday's close) has a high probability of ending the week above its key weekly moving average at 2,068.1. The index has declining weekly momentum, with a reading of 77.49 falling below the overbought threshold of 80.00, which should limit the upside. If the S&P 500 ends the week above a key technical level of 2,096.4, the upside is above its current all-time intraday high of 2,119.59 set on Feb. 25.
The Nasdaq (4,992 at Thursday's close) has a high probability of ending the week above its key weekly moving average at 4,850. The Nasdaq still has weekly momentum at 84.78, above the overbought threshold of 80.00. If the Nasdaq ends the week above a key technical level of 4,962, the upside is to 5,245, which is a key level on technical charts until the end of March. That would be above the all-time bubble high of 5,132 set in March 2000.
Here are the weekly charts for the Exchange-Traded Funds that best track these major averages.
SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) - Get Report ($179.66 at Thursday's close) set its all-time intraday high of $182.68 on March 2 and traded as low as $176.97 before the Fed Statement on Wednesday and as high as $181 afterward. The weekly chart is neutral with the ETF just above its key weekly moving average at $178.49 and a momentum reading declining at 74.29 versus 79.14 a week ago, below the overbought threshold of 80.00.
Investors looking to buy this ETF, known as Diamonds, should place a good-til-canceled order to purchase the ETF if it drops to $150.82 and $145.21, which are key levels on technical charts for all of 2015.
Investors looking to reduce holdings should place a good-til-canceled order to sell this ETF if it rises to $182.68 and $186.74, which are key levels on technical charts until the end of June.
Courtesy of MetaStock Xenith
The SPCR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) - Get Report ($209.50 at Thursday's close) set its all-time intraday high of $212.97 on Dec.19 and traded as low as $206.62 before the Fed statement on Wednesday and as high as $211.27 afterwards. The weekly chart is neutral, with the ETF above its key weekly moving average at $207.42 and a momentum reading that's declining at 68.42 versus 70.26 last week and below the overbought threshold of 80.00.
Investors looking to buy the ETF, known as Spiders, should place a good-til-canceled order to purchase the ETF if it drops to $158.52 and $155.57, which are key levels on technical charts for all of 2015.
Investors looking to reduce holdings should place a good-til-canceled order to sell the ETF if it rises to $226.62, which is a key level on technical charts until the end of June.
Courtesy of MetaStock Xenith
PowerShares QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) - Get Report -- which tracks the Nasdaq 100, not the Nasdaq Composite -- closed Thursday at $108.08 and set its all-time intraday high of $109.42 on March 2. The fund traded as low as $106.03 before the Fed statement on Wednesday and as high as $108.41 afterward. The weekly chart is neutral, with the ETF above its key weekly moving average at $106.12. The ETF has a momentum reading at 78.95 versus 81.24 last week, slipping below the overbought threshold at 80.00.
Investors looking to buy the tech-heavy ETF should place a good-til-canceled order to purchase the ETF if it drops to $89.42, which is a key level on technical charts for all of 2015. Those seeking to reduce holdings should place a good-til-canceled order to sell the ETF if it rises to $111.30, which a key level on technical charts until the end of June.
Courtesy of MetaStock Xenith
This article is commentary by an independent contributor. At the time of publication, the author held no positions in the securities mentioned.