TRI Pointe Homes Offers Enticing Value Amid Construction Rebound

With the stock down more than 16% in the past twelve months, these shares won't get cheaper.
By Richard Saintvilus ,

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Analysts have gotten more bullish on the growth prospects of homebuilders, which bodes well for TRI Pointe Homes (TPH) - Get Report as the company prepares for its fourth-quarter earnings results Tuesday before the opening bell.

With expectations having grown over the past six months, finding value in this sector has been hard. TRI Pointe, whose shares are down 16% in the past twelve months, compared to 6% gains in the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) - Get Report is one of the few bargains remaining.

Not only has the Irvine, CA.-based company lagged the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF, TRI Pointe stock has also underperformed prominent homebuilders like Toll Brothers (TOL) - Get Report and Ryland Group (RYL) , which are up 12% and 18% year to date, compared with just 4% gains for TRI pointe. Investors looking for a quick bounce should buy TRI Pointe before its results are released.

TPH Year to Date Price Returns

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YCharts

While homebuilders tend to trade in tandem, TRI Pointe stock has not participated much in the rally. And analysts, who have assigned the stock a consensus buy rating, expect the TRI Point shares to liven much sooner rather than later. The stock has an average 12-month price target of $18, implying analysts expect a more than 13% gain from Friday's close.

Plus, with better-than-expected results coming in from the likes of D.R. Horton (DHI) - Get Report, which reported a 29% year-over-year jump in sales order backlog, it means there is pent-up demand for homes. Equally important, it signaled a 21% year-over-year increase in home sales volumes, which should bode well for TRI Pointe's results Tuesday.

In other words, if D.R. Horton's results serve as indication, TRI Pointe may have had more demand for its homes than it had inventory to sell. Not only is this a strong sign of recurring and predictable revenue, TRI Pointe should also benefit from the implied increase in the value of those homes, suggesting higher profits.

For the quarter that ended in December, analysts expect earnings to be 26 cents per share on revenue of $659 million. For the full year, earnings are projected to grow 30% year over year to 65 cents per share, while revenue is projected to be $1.76 billion.

In short, with TRI Pointe stock down more than 16% in the past twelve months, these shares are not likely to get cheaper. And to make money, investors would be better served entering into new positions now.

This article is commentary by an independent contributor. At the time of publication, the author held no position in the stocks mentioned.

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