Time to Tune Out

Forget 10,000. The trader's concern after Thursday's action was that he let the naysayers get to him.
By Jim Cramer ,

This

Dow

10,000 certainly had a better feel to it. It didn't cascade lower after. There are plenty of Dow stocks that could reverse a point or two from where they went out and 10,100 would be within reach.

More importantly, the tone of the market changed again, for the better. The drugs acted well, and did not take their cue from

Eli Lilly

(LLY) - Get Report

. The BKX, the bank index I follow like a hawk, took a six count and then came out fighting. The airlines, well, talk about a preannouncement that told you everything: How about that

AMR

(AMR)

blow-up?

Let's go over this AMR reaction Thursday, because I think it was incredibly instructive. First, I wasn't watching my screen when the news came over Wednesday night about the AMR blow-up. I was immediately conscious when I read the site last night that the AMR news didn't seem all of that bad.

But Thursday morning

The Wall Street Journal

article made it sound like AMR would be down. Down big.

Then in the morning, when I have TV in the background, I heard three different talking heads talk about how AMR was going to be weak today because it had missed the numbers. One talking head said it would bring down the whole transport average!

Then I went over the release.

Everything about this "blow-up" was well-known to anybody who trades the airlines. What I think was not well-known was that the company was moving aggressively to buy back shares. In fact, the buyback is a fierce one, I learned later -- meant to get in as many shares as possible, as opposed to the "for show" buybacks that dominate the tape. AMR has really shrunk its capitalization massively in the last few years.

When Jeff Berkowitz, my partner, came in I said that when AMR opens down, we should pounce. He asked me why I thought it would open down and my analysis was probably like those of many of our readers: "The TV guys say it will be down and the papers say it will be down." I didn't think beyond that.

But the power of the media to throw one off the scent should never be underestimated. Because I expected the stock to be down, because THEY SAID IT WOULD BE DOWN, I did not get involved when I saw it wasn't down. I just kept waiting for it to be down.

It never was down. And I bought none.

So often it will be like that. I will be listening and I will hear that so-and-so looks weaker or so-and-so is trading off in London or so-and-so will be down big. And it is plain wrong. The sources are wrong. The reporters are wrong. The information is wrong.

Today was a day I let the naysayers get to me. I let the profit opportunity slip away because I let someone who knows less than I do tell me that there were big sellers and that a stock would be weaker.

I will try not to let it happen again. I know it will, but I write this article to remind myself: "Don't listen when someone says such-and-such will be down big."

They don't know.

James J. Cramer is manager of a hedge fund and co-founder of TheStreet.com. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Cramer's writings provide insights into the dynamics of money management and are not a solicitation for transactions. While he cannot provide investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to comment on his column by sending an email to letters@thestreet.com.

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