Tiffany's Expensive Stock Is Tarnished as Weak Revenue, Profits Expected
NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Shoppers at high-end jeweler Tiffany (TIF) - Get Report aren't what you would consider thrifty. It's a different story for Tiffany's shareholders. With the stock wallowing near 52-week lows, Tiffany's investors should consider cutting back.
Tiffany, headquartered in New York, will report fiscal fourth-quarter earnings results before Friday's opening bell. The stock is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 60 -- three times the average P/E of companies in the S&P 500 (SPX) -- and it's tough to see value even with the shares 20% lower in 2015.
Worse, the company may be hurt by the strong U.S. dollar. Tiffany sells timepieces, leather goods and sterling silverware, and relies heavily on regions like Asia-Pacific, Japan and Europe.
In anticipation of this potentially prolonged problem, analysts have cut the company's estimates by 6.7% for the just-ended quarter. And analysts cut estimates for the April quarter by 11.5% and by 3.4% for the full year. Analysts aren't betting too highly on fiscal year 2016 either. Full-year earnings per share estimates were cut by 9% to $4.47 per share.
Even on a forward-looking basis, Tiffany's stock is expensive. Assuming that the company does earn $4.47 per share for 2016, the stock is priced at 19 times estimates. That is two points higher than the average forward P/E of S&P 500 companies, according to The Wall Street Journal.
The reason for downbeat expectations? Tiffany's results and business outlook.
In January, sales for the all-important holiday quarter reached just $1.02 billion for the first two months, translating to a 1% decline from the year prior. Tiffany was hurt by weak sales in the Americas, which were much lower than expected. It didn't help that traditionally weak areas like Japan didn't improve. All told, the company cited weakness across several regions and product lines.
Then Tiffany cut its business outlook for the rest of the just-ended January quarter. It projected full-year earnings per share in the range of $4.15 to $4.20, down from the previous range of $4.20 to $4.30 per share.
While that does reflect a 12% jump above 2013's adjusted earnings of $3.73 per share, investors want more, especially at such a high P/E. Investors are paying for growth. With full-year revenue projected to be $4.29 billion, reflecting just 6% growth from 2013 levels, Tiffany will have a hard time beating even the lowered estimates.
Investors would do well to stay away until Tiffany's business outlook improves.
This article is commentary by an independent contributor. At the time of publication, the author held no position in the stocks mentioned.