The Other Side of the Strong Dollar Debate: 'Creates Trouble Elsewhere'
NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Now we are hearing the other side of the "strong dollar" story: see "How a Strong Dollar Creates Trouble Elsewhere," in the New York Times.
A weak dollar encourages businesses in emerging nations to borrow money in United States markets and in United States dollars, and, as the value of the dollars decline, they can pay back their loans in cheaper dollars.
A reversal from a weak dollar policy, "whiplashes" a business in an emerging country that borrowed money expecting that the value of the dollar would decline, but sees the value of the dollar goes up instead.
Raghuram Rajan, governor of the Reserve Bank of India, is quoted as saying on Bloomberg Television, "Borrowing dollars is like playing Russian roulette, especially if you're borrowing relatively short term."
So, where should a business in an emerging country borrow if the general policy of the United States government is to see the value of the dollar decline over time?
As I recently wrote, the value of the United States dollar trended downwards by over 37% against major currencies from January 1973 to May 2011, before it leveled off and then began its current rise. Before that, the United States caused the breakup of the post-World War II international financial arrangements, the Bretton Woods system, with its almost total disregard of the foreign exchange ramifications of its fiscal policies.
Given this trend, it seems like it has been a pretty good bet for a business in an emerging nation to borrow in a dollar-denominated market.
Yet, the dollar shot up in value in the early 1980s as a Paul Volcker led Federal Reserve System had to tighten up on monetary policy, driving some short-term interest rates above 20%, to combat inflation. The value of the dollar soared.
Then during the Clinton administration, the Robert Rubin led Treasury Department took the federal budget into the surplus range in the latter part of the 1990s. The value of the dollar soared once again and we got a crisis in East Asian economies in the late 1990s and in Latin American economies in the early 2000s.
Thus, the current strength in the dollar is the third "bump" in the dollar's post-1950s downward trend.
What is wrong with this picture?
Well, first of all, the United States has the only reserve currency in the world. As a consequence of this, other countries will turn to the dollar as a strong, safe currency to use in transactions and in debt decisions.
Thus, having the only reserve currency in the world gives privileges to the United States, but these privileges are also accompanied by certain responsibilities.
In terms of privileges, it can be argued that other nations would not stand by and allow a nation to let its currency decline by more than 37% over time with intervening periods of substantial upswings if it did not have the reserve currency and the strongest economy in the world.
This is why Germany and Europe opted to try and create a strong, well-accepted currency to be used interchangeably with the U. S. dollar and why China has been moving to make its currency more acceptable in world trade and finance.
Even with the weakness in the value of the dollar through the past fifty-five years, the United Stats has not overdone its weak dollar policies and caused a revolt against the use of the dollar as the world's only reserve currency.
Still, if the United States is going to use all the privileges it has in having the only reserve currency in the world, it seems as if it should also accept the responsibility of maintaining some kind of stability in the dollar's value, for the benefit of these that do not have the privilege of having a reserve currency.
The United States is the most economically powerful nation in the world and, right now, it has the only reserve currency in the world. The United States should stop talking about having a strong dollar policy and actually create a strong dollar policy. In doing so, however, it must fully accept the responsibilities that go along with this and not only support the value of the currency in the market but also work to maintain a stable value for the dollar.
This is what a strong, productive and competitive economy would do.
This article is commentary by an independent contributor. At the time of publication, the author held no positions in the stocks mentioned.