Red Hat's Charts Are Positive Ahead of Earnings, but Risks Loom

The software company is scheduled to report after the closing bell on Wednesday.
By Richard Suttmeier ,

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Software developer Red Hat (RHT) - Get Report has beaten earnings estimates for eight consecutive quarters, and a ninth beat after the close on Wednesday should propel the stock to another all-time high above its current high of $71.77 set on Dec. 26. But risks loom. 

Credit Suisse has warned that the company faces difficult year-over-year comparisons and the risk of a hit to revenue from the strong U.S. dollar. Late last week, Raymond James reduced estimates due to the currency-conversion risk, but maintained its outperform rating.

To add to the debate, Barclay's reiterated its overweight rating and kept a price target of $77.

Analysts expect Red Hat to report earnings of 28 cents a share for its fiscal first quarter that ended on Feb. 28.

Let's take a look at the performance measures for Red Hat, key trading levels, and analysis of daily and weekly charts.

Red Hat ($69.47 at Monday's close) gained 23% in 2014, and is up 0.5% so far in 2015. The stock is just 3.2% below its all-time intraday high and 11% above its 2015 low of $62.43 set on Feb. 2.

Investors looking to buy Red Hat after earnings should place a good-till-canceled limit order to purchase the stock if it drops to $65.71, which is a key level on technical charts until the end of 2015.

Investors looking to book profits should hold off until after the earnings report, as the upside to another all-time high would be signaled given a by price gap above $70.83, which is a key level on technical charts until the end of the month.

Let's take a look at the daily chart for Red Hat.


Courtesy of MetaStock Xenith

The daily chart has been tracking the stock's 200-day simple moving average (green line) higher since the shares broke out above this average when it was $48.48 on Dec. 19, 2013, which was a day that the company reported a better-than-expected quarterly earnings.

After trading as high as $61.45 on March 6, the stock slumped back to its 200-day simple moving average, which provided a buying opportunity between April 4 and June 13, when the average was $51.30.

The next set of higher highs and higher lows shown on the chart had the stock trade as high as $62.69 on Aug. 19. The stock then dipped again to its 200-day simple moving average between Sept. 29 and Oct. 27, when the average was $55.64.

Notice the price gap from the close of $61.50 on Dec. 18 to the all-time intraday high of $71.77 set on Dec. 26. This move was in reaction to the company's last earnings report released on Dec. 18.

The stage is now set for Wednesday's earnings report. After the stock dipped to $62.43 on Feb. 2, the stock is well above its 50-day (blue line) and 200-day simple moving averages at $66.98 and $61, respectively.

Let's take a look at the weekly chart for Red Hat.


Courtesy of MetaStock Xenith

The weekly chart would stay positive given a close this week above the stock's key weekly moving average at $67.90. The momentum reading shown in red along the bottom of the chart is projected to rise to 68.07 from 66.48 last week.

If Red Hat misses earnings and offers a weak outlook, the stock would likely gap below its key weekly moving average and could decline to its 200-week simple moving average (green line) at $52.75, last tested when the average was $48.42 the week of May 9, 2014. .

This article is commentary by an independent contributor. At the time of publication, the author held no positions in the stock mentioned.

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