Obama Faces Pressure in Tuesday's Vote
Tuesday May 6 marks another possible watershed in the process to find a Democratic nominee to face Republican John McCain in the fall general election. Primaries will be held in Indiana and North Carolina. Initial polls in early April had Sen. Barack Obama (D., Ill.) with a sizeable lead in Indiana and a massive lead of almost 20 points in North Carolina.
Now things have changed. Sen. Hillary Clinton (D., N.Y.) won the Pennsylvania primary by 10 percentage points, despite a decided disadvantage in ad dollars. The momentum since seems to favor Clinton. Most polls show Clinton leading in Indiana, and closing in North Carolina, which would make the Tar Heel state a tight race. The pressure is on Obama to exceed expectations.
Obama's campaign has started to face adversity in the media for the first time in the campaign. Many pundits now question how much damage Rev. Jeremiah Wright has done to the campaign.
One example comes from an
in the
LA Times
that wonders what will happen to the
dialogue on race that Obama began
in response to the controversy over Rev. Wright. Obama had preached unity. But when his former pastor appeared on TV at the National Press Club and repeated statements on the record, Obama reacted by throwing his pastor under the bus and disowning him. This contradicts Obama's speech. Obama said he could no more disown Rev. Wright than he could his own white grandmother. What changed?
The only difference came in the polls. Obama's campaign started to lose ground vs. both Clinton and McCain in the two upcoming primaries and national polls. Sunday's
poll showed Obama's 10-point lead from last month with Democrats and independent voters had evaporated, turning into a seven-point edge for Clinton. Thus, one conclusion about Obama's decision to disown his pastor is that it appears blatantly political. Rev. Wright definitively hurt Obama with whites.
Now it will be interesting to see if Obama's rejection of his pastor will hurt his support among African Americans as well. African Americans have overwhelmingly supported him by about 9 to 1 in most primaries. Because of the large African American make up of Democratic primary voters, North Carolina has long been a firewall state for Obama.
Several media reports typify Obama as feeling the pressure of media scrutiny over his disavowal of Rev. Wright. Mayhill Flower, the reporter who broke "Bitter-gate," followed him on the campaign trail and
noted
how he seemed not to know where he was. Obama joked about it, and most of the media failed to comment on it.
Clinton, on the other hand, appears energized. She has been consistently touting her plan to help the middle class by offering a gas tax cut, which would be paid for by taxing big oil companies. Clinton's chances have also improved with those who speculate on political futures at
Intrade.com
. In April, her chances to win the Democratic nomination had traded down to below 10, or a 10% chance to win. After Pennsylvania, her contract more than doubled. It closed as high as 29, and it presently trades in the low 20s.
Obama supporters shouldn't start to get too worried just yet, as not every polls predicts doom for Obama. Another poll over the weekend by
CBS/NY Times
demonstrates Obama has maintained a sizeable margin of 12-points in national polls with voters overlooking the Rev. Wright controversy. This directly contradicts the Gallup poll.
Obama has painted Clinton as a pandering politician. He points to her gas tax proposal as having little effect on gas prices and being bad for the environment. It remains difficult to predict how voters will react to the proposal.
If the latter poll proves to be true with the Rev. Wright controversy blowing over, then the pandering charge may stick to Clinton. This would mean Obama might win big in North Carolina and eke out victory in Indiana. That would be a disaster for Clinton. It would kill her momentum, and it could possibly kill her candidacy, too.
We will know soon. The results from the two key states will begin to trickle out on Tuesday night.