Nutrisystem Still Attractive After Strong Earnings Give It a Bounce
NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Even as Nutrisystem (NTRI) - Get Report, a leading provider of weight management products and services, was rising Tuesday on higher profits, its shares remained attractive.
Investors waiting to buy until the stock gets cheaper will be disappointed, especially since the company's fourth-quarter earnings beat analysts' estimates as it posted its sixth straight quarter of revenue growth. But even at current prices, the shares are still a good bet, given the company's business outlook and its ability to make its sales count on the bottom line. Additionally, Nutrisystem has room to increase its dividend.
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Fourth-quarter revenue reached $79.2 million, up 13% year-over-year, topping 2013's mark of $69.9 million. While that did miss analysts' revenue estimates of $80.4 million, when viewed as part of the larger picture, it hardly matters. Not only was last quarter the company's sixth consecutive period with year-over-year revenue growth, but Nutrisystem grew its adjusted EBITDA 152% year-over-year, beating estimates by 11%. That has to be the main story.
EBITDA -- earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization -- is an accounting metric that allows us to better gauge how a company's earnings compare to others within its industry. Because it eliminates things like financing and accounting decisions, the business's operational performance stands out.
That Nutrisystem is growing EBITDA at a triple-digit annual percentage rate underscores the extent to which it is focusing on the bottom line, and how it intends to return value to shareholders. Because it was able to beat analysts' EBITDA projections by 11% investors can fairly discount the miss on revenue, because the EBITDA beat tells them that the company is squeezing as much profit as possible from each dollar of revenue it generates.
Those profits make it more likely to increase its 17.5-cent quarterly dividend, which already yields 4.08% -- more than twice the average yield of dividend payers in the S&P 500 (SPX) . But ahead of Monday's results, Nutrisystem stock was down more than 12% on the year, grossly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial AverageI:DJI and the S&P 500, which are both up more than 2%.
Despite the underperformance, analysts were broadly positive about the Washington, Penn.-based company's growth prospects. Not only does the stock has a consensus buy rating, analysts are giving it an average 12-month price target of $21.50 -- 25% higher than Monday's closing price of $17.15. And if its fourth quarter earnings performance serves as an indication of its future direction -- the company also more than quadrupled its earnings per share to 18 cents, from 4 cents last year -- investors can reasonably expect Nutrisystem stock to reach its high analyst target of $25. In short, Nutrisystem gives investors a chance to buy a solid dividend-payer with a strong business outlook, whose shares have underperformed the market -- and they should take advantage.
This article is commentary by an independent contributor. At the time of publication, the author held no positions in the stocks mentioned.