McCormick's Weekly Chart Is Trending Down Before Earnings
NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Spice maker McCormick (MKC) - Get Report, which is scheduled to report its quarterly earnings before the opening bell on Tuesday, has beaten analysts' earnings-per-share estimates for five consecutive quarters, and the company's stock has moved sideways to up during the last 24 months. That doesn't necessarily mean, however, that the stock will go up, even with another earnings beat on Tuesday.
Analysts expect the company to report earnings of 64 cents a share for its fiscal first quarter ended in February. Analysts say that McCormick has been seeing rising demand for spices, herbs and seasonings from around the globe, but that demand has waned from quick-service restaurants in the Americas and China.
Another earnings beat doesn't mean that the stock will rise. Despite better-than-expected earnings reported on Jan. 28, the stock declined to its 200-day simple moving average of $70.88, which proved to be a buying opportunity as the stock rebounded to as high as $75.99 on Feb. 23.
Let's take a look at the performance measures for McCormick, key trading levels, as well as analysis of daily and weekly charts.
McCormick ($72.88 at Friday's close) gained 7.8% in 2014, but has slipped 1.9% so far in 2015. The stock is 5.4% below its all-time intraday high of $77.08 set on Dec. 23, and is 3.1% above its 2015 low of $70.70 set on Feb. 2.
Investors looking to buy McCormick after earnings should place a good-till-canceled limit order to purchase the stock if it drops to $68.97, which is a key level on technical charts until the end of 2015.
Investors looking to reduce holdings should place a good-till-canceled limit order to sell the stock if it rises to $77.88, which is a key level on technical charts until the end of the month.
Let's take a look at the daily chart for McCormick.
Courtesy of MetaStock Xenith
The daily chart has been tracking the stock's 200-day simple moving average (green line) since the beginning of 2013 when the average was $60.78 on Jan. 25, 2013. Notice the numerous times the stock crossed its 200-day SMA during the last 24 months.
Note the price gaps shown on the chart. On Jan. 29, 2014, the company reported an earnings beat but gapped lower. The stock's 2014 low of $62.75 was set on Feb. 7. On March 25, an earnings beat propelled the stock higher, as it gapped above its 200-day simple moving average, which was then at $68.74. The negative reaction to an earnings beat on June 26 held the stock's 200-day SMA, which was then at $68.89. The earnings beat on Oct. 28 fueled a momentum run-up to the stock's all-time intraday high.
The pattern has been that the stock either crosses or holds its 200-day simple moving average following an earnings report and that the moving average is now at $71.36, with the 50-day simple moving average (blue line) at $74.
Let's take a look at the weekly chart for McCormick.
Courtesy of MetaStock Xenith
The weekly chart shifted to negative on March 6, and ended last week negatively with the stock below its key weekly moving average of $73.62. The momentum reading shown in red along the bottom of the chart declined to 49.55 last week from 57.55 on March 13. Note that at the record high, the momentum reading was above the overbought threshold of 80.00.
This article is commentary by an independent contributor. At the time of publication, the author held no positions in the stock mentioned.