IHS Shares Don't Belong in Your Investment Portfolio Right Now

Aside from projected weakness due to the strong dollar, IHS's future growth prospects remain uncertain.
By Richard Saintvilus ,

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- IHS (IHS) , a data analytics company, would appear to be an exciting investment at first look.

After all, the market for data analytics and other information to help businesses smart decisions is projected to grow in the next couple of years, according to research firm IDC, and IHS provides such services to clients around the globe.

Right now is not the time to buy shares, however. The strong dollar is hurting results, IHS has a large debt load and there are concerns about its growth.

IHS has a global reach of 165 countries. With the greenback so strong right now, that means that sales made in other currencies are worth less once they're converted into dollars.

What's more, this stock is not cheap. It currently trades at 42 times what the company earned per share over the past year, twice the average for stocks in the S&P 500.

This means investors are counting on strong growth looking ahead as they prepare for IHS to report results for its fiscal first-quarter, which ended Feb. 28, on Tuesday morning.

Smart investors will note that analysts' expectations for the earnings have fallen. In the past three months, the average EPS estimate from analysts for the fiscal first quarter has fallen by 3.5% to $1.36, while the average estimate for the current quarter, which ends in May, has declined by 5.5%, and the one for all of fiscal 2015 has fallen 3.5%.

If IHS meets the $1.36 estimate, that would mean EPS grew 6% year over year. Analysts on average expect revenue to grow 5.6% to $553.6 million. For the full fiscal year, ending in November, earnings are projected to grow 4.7% to $6.18, while revenue is projected to climb 5.8%, reaching $2.26 billion.

Why are estimates falling? Obviously, there's the impact of the strong dollar on revenue.

There are other reasons for investors to worry, though. When IHS last reported earnings, its balance sheet had cash of $153 million, but the company has a debt load of $1.84 billion. This put IHS's net debt position of around $1.6 billion, making its stock, which is already expensive, even more risky.

The concern here is that at some point, IHS will run out of companies to buy, and it will have to show it can grow organically.

The declining earnings estimates suggest analysts aren't confident IHS can execute in manner that creates immediate value for shareholders. And this explains why the stock has been so volatile in recent months.

After it reached a 52-week high of $143.92 on Sept. 2, IHS stock plummeted by as much as 26%, falling to a 52-week low of $106.03 on Jan. 7. Although the shares have regained some of their losses, they're still down more than 17% from their 52-week high. Even so, new investors shouldn't touch the stock here, because its price-to-earnings ratio remains too high.

With revenue growing at just 4% in the most recent quarter and projected to grow at 5% in the fiscal first quarter, IHS will have a tough time making money unless it can significantly expand its margins.

Given that the stock remains expensive and that analysts' estimates are declining, investors would do well to avoid IHS for now. Should the stock reach another 52-week low or fall 15% below current levels, then it would be time for investors to give it another look.

This article is commentary by an independent contributor. At the time of publication, the author held no positions in the stocks mentioned.

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