If You Sold in May, You're Scrambling Today
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Sell in May and lose all of your performance? That's what it seems like here.
This return of Mutual Fund Monday is in nobody's thinking, particularly those who were concerned about May performance. Nor is it typical, in that tech has been blowing the doors off, something that has seemed to be almost impossible during May, when we were always so concerned about summer orders. No wonder the bears are confounded. They are tripping over each other and can't get out of each other's way, just as those big institutions that pulled out are reassessing their lack of exposure.
Mutual Fund Monday, something that rocked the 1990s, had to do with retail participation over excitement of new ideas and new IPOs. This one, this move, is all about just a declining cash rate and a sense that it isn't coming back shortly. It is a lack of alternative plays, because bonds
and
real estate are not investable.
You can see that the spillover effect from the oils -- as I mentioned in an earlier piece -- isn't quitting today. I really like the wind plays, and I don't think that
Broadwind
is played out yet -- video about that one today. And the commodity plays, including shipping -- I have
waxed positively about
Nordic American Tanker
(NAT) - Get Report
and
Frontline
(FRO) - Get Report
-- aren't done either.
Freeport-McMoRan
(FCX) - Get Report
seems slated for much higher. Meanwhile the rails won't quit, and
Union Pacific
(UNP) - Get Report
remains the cheapest.
Mutual Fund Monday does not respect truisms like "Sell in May." It also doesn't respect the mad desire of neophyte hedge funds to short, something that was so accurately and candidly spelled out by our own Dougie Kass in
Barron's
.
It's why this market is more explosive than people think and isn't quitting. Not when there are so many people who sold in May, for certain.
At the time of publication, Cramer was long Freeport-McMoRan.
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