Hillary Clinton's 'Super PACs' Think Marco Rubio Will Win the GOP Nomination

Hillary Clinton supporters think they already know who her Republican opponent will be in 2016 -- the writing is on the (online) wall.
By Emily Stewart ,

Hillary Clinton supporters think they already know who her Republican opponent will be in 2016 -- the writing is on the (online) wall.

While GOP contenders Donald Trump and Ben Carson continue to lead the polls and dominate much of the chatter in the media and on the internet, it is freshman Florida Senator Marco Rubio who supporters of Democratic frontrunner Hillary Clinton seems to be sweating the most. Or at least her "super PACs" are. 

Super PACs, officially known as independent expenditure-only committees, are groups that can raise and spend unlimited amounts of money to advocate for or against candidates, ballot initiatives, legislation and other causes. By Federal Election Commission rules, they are barred from coordinating directly with candidates and political parties. For proof they're sweating Rubio, look to social media.

Priorities USA Action, an affiliated super PAC supporting Clinton, has mentioned Rubio's Twitter handle @MarcoRubio in tweets or retweets 88 times since October 28, the day of the third Republican debate -- arguably the senator's breakout moment on the campaign trail -- through Wednesday, according to an analysis by TheStreet.

Correct the Record, another big pro-Hillary super PAC that has raised some eyebrows over its rule-stretching setup that allows it to coordinate directly with the Clinton campaign (something super PACs are generally barred from doing), has called him out 87 times.

"I think it is fair to suggest the Clinton team is looking to undermine the person whom they believe could pose the largest threat to her in a general election," said Lara Brown, associate professor and director of the George Washington University's Graduate School of Political Management's political management program, in an email.

Trump, who on Twitter goes by @RealDonaldTrump, has been mentioned 14 and 13 times, respectively, and @RealBenCarson has been named 15 times by each. Ted Cruz, Rand Paul and John Kasich all got a handful of mentions. Chris Christie, Carly Fiorina, Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum got a shout out or two from Correct the Record, but by Priorities USA Action, which backed Barack Obama in 2012, they were completely ignored. Priorities USA Action and Correct the Record did not respond to request for comment.

The only other candidate who gets even close to the amount of attention as Rubio is Jeb Bush. Priorities USA Action tweeted or retweeted his @JebBush handle on 30 occasions, and Correct the Record 44.

With smaller, less-important Clinton PACs, it's not as clear. Balance of Power PAC references Bush and not Rubio on its Twitter account, though the last time it did so was in July. EMILY's List, a pro-choice Democratic PAC that has backed Clinton, has given about equal but limited air time to Bush and Rubio on its Twitter account and has spent a bit more time on Trump.

On Facebook, Rubio dominates the conversation on Correct the Record's Facebook account, followed by Bush and with a handful of nods to Trump, Carson, Kasich and Cruz. Christie got a reference via the post of a New York Times piece calling for him to drop out of the presidential race. Bush gets a bit more attention than Rubio from Priorities Action USA, being pictured or mentioned nine times since October 28 compared to Rubio's eight. (Despite media speculation that the former Florida governor's campaign is over, the Clinton camp appears to believe he still has a fighting chance.)

Elsewhere on the internet, Priorities has put out a YouTube video titled "Marco Rubio, Mainsplainer." It features a clip from the October Republican presidential debate during which the Florida senator says, "I tried early in my marriage explaining to my wife why someone named Sallie Mae was taking a $1,000 out of our bank account," as well as the hashtag #WrongForUs.

Aside from believing he'll be the eventual Republican nominee, targeting Rubio may say something about the psychology of Clinton backers. 

"This may also be an example of [the] 'fighting the last war' problem, which is fairly common in campaigns -- meaning that while it is possible that Rubio may well be Clinton's biggest threat, it is also possible that the Clinton team are focused on him because Rubio reminds them most of the last opponent who bested her: Barack Obama," said Brown.

Rubio's persona can be seen as reflective of Obama's in 2008 -- a young, freshman senator with a compelling personal story, appealing demeanor and ability to connect with voters.

"It is clear that [Hillary's camp] are again concerned with how a message of 'change' might undermine her 'experience,'" said Brown.

To be sure, a lot could happen between now and the Republican National Convention in Cleveland next July, where the GOP's presidential nominee will be selected. Rubio isn't exactly dominating the polls right now, either. According to RealClearPolitics, he is running a rather distant third to both Trump and Carson.

While many think Clinton will land the Democratic nomination, she has lost what were expected to be locked-in nods before. But the amount of mentions she got at Tuesday's Republican debate on Fox Business indicates the GOP is pretty sure she is its main enemy. And the stock market seems to think that not only will she get the Democratic nomination, but also that she'll win the general election.

It is worth noting that neither Hillary-friendly super PAC makes mention of Clinton's Democratic Party opponents, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders and former Maryland governor Martin O'Malley.

As for Clinton herself, she has largely avoided singling out any of her potential Republican opponents online with the exception of a Facebook post taking a swing at Bush and a tweet (which was also translated into Spanish) on Trump.

Join TheStreet on Saturday, November 14 for live coverage of the second Democratic presidential primary debate. The debate will be televised live on CBS. You can follow all the action, with updates and commentary, on Twitter @TheStreet

This article is commentary by an independent contributor. 

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