Greek Debt Talks Will Produce Deal but Not Without Risks
NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- The Greek government faces mounting political risks as it works to hammer out a debt deal with creditors ahead of an April 20 deadline.
Weekend talks moved slowly, but Blanka Kolenikova, an analyst with IHS, believes a deal will ultimately be reached and that it will include more concessions and cost-cutting by the Greek government.
"The Syriza government is stuck between a rock and a hard place," said Kolenikova. "The government realizes the country depends on the external funding to meet its financial obligations, but in doing so it would breach pre-election promises which could created further problems."
"If Greece gives in fully to the creditors' pressure, Syriza's popularity would likely fall, which would, in turn, increase the government instability risks," said Kolenikova. So far the government is enjoying strong public support, but she said that could change very rapidly.
Kolenikova added that risks for violence also would increase, with the possibility of "wide-scale protests, riots and labor strikes possibly even more disruptive and violent than those occurring in the previous years since the fiscal and economic crisis erupted."
The Greek government has given an extended list of measures to creditors that focus on increased tax collection. Kolenikova said the main question that remains is whether the creditors would be willing to release funds if Greece fails to implement the proposed reforms.
Despite the outstanding issues, Kolenikova believes an agreement with creditors will be reached regarding the disbursement of funds before the end of April. But the government will still face further tough negotiations over a new program to replace the current bailout once it expires in June.