Fresh Market Shares Are Too Risky Amid Leadership Changes
NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Beating earnings estimates isn't enough to keep a company's stock from falling this earnings season. And that puts specialty grocery store operator Fresh Market (TFM) , whose CEO abruptly resigned in January, in a tough position ahead of Thursday's financial results, due out after market close.
And short sellers have taken the CEO's resignation as a sign of bad things to come. Take a look at the table, courtesy of Nasdaq.
After short interest -- a bearish sentiment meter -- of Fresh Market stock declined 14% in the three reporting periods between Dec. 15 and Jan. 15, shorts sellers have grown their positions 8% just in the last two reports. And more than 7% of that jump came after CEO Craig Carlock stepped down, which sent the stock plummeting more than 10%.
And the shares have yet to recover. Take a look at the chart.
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With shares down 7% so far in 2015 and down 3% over the past three months, investors are desperate for some good news. It just won't be the news they're looking for. And not to the extent it propels an already-expensive stock, that carries a price-to-earnings ratio of 41, any higher.
Fresh Market trades at trailing P/E that is twice the average of companies in the S&P 500 index, which is a P/E of 21. This means despite the company's shares being down more than 14% in the past three years, expectations are still high. And the risk implied in the earnings growth expectations is heightened as the company is now under new leadership.
And though Greensboro, N.C.-based Fresh Market has begun to add higher-margin products and services into its stores, including efforts to deliver fresh produced meats and prepared foods, these initiatives will come at a cost, which may impact near-term profit margins. Not to mention, other rising costs related to pre-opening of new stores, occupancy expenses and higher employee wages.
Woking in its favor, Fresh Market does have a much easier profit mark to beat, given that its full-year 2013 profit declined more than 21%, according to CNN Money. Still, the stock's trailing P/E, which is also twice the average of companies in SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) - Get Report, implies strong outperformance -- not merely beating its own comparable results.
And with organic and natural produce retailersSprouts Farmers Market (SFM) - Get Report and Whole Foods (WFM) still growing their retail locations, Fresh Market may have a tough time competing. Not to mention, Whole Foods -- the market leader in the fresh and organic retail category -- trades at a P/E that is seven percentage points lower than Fresh Market. And it pays a dividend.
And though the company may beat Thursday's earnings and revenue estimates of 51 cents and $483 million, respectively, there is still too much risk in owning Fresh Market stock. The limited upside value implied by its average price target of $39 -- from current levels of $38 -- is not worth it, especially when the short sellers are raising their bets.
This article is commentary by an independent contributor. At the time of publication, the author held no positions in the stocks mentioned.