Eurozone Won't Survive Long Without More Political Unity
NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- The Eurozone won't survive without more political unity than it's currently displaying.
And it's not just about Greece.
Over the weekend Olli Rehn, the former head economist of the of the Economic Union, blasted the European Commission for its weak response to the failure of France to meet its economic goals. These rules, which member nations are supposed to respond to, were adopted in 2011. In 2013, France got a two-year extension having failed to meet its first set of goals. France has once more failed to meet its goals and the commission has meekly extended things once again and has "taken no effective action," a response indicating that it was not going to start sanction proceedings against France.
Obviously, it is a problem if the Eurozone's second largest economy keeps disregarding the rules because the overall organization is unwilling or incapable to enforce the rules of the union.
Following this up, one turns to Italy, a nation that under the new president, Matteo Renzi, it elected last year, is trying to sufficiently reform its country to meet Eurozone standards. He has been facing more and more opposition to his efforts. With the European Commission passing on efforts to discipline France, why should the opposition to Renzi be willing to back off?
In its initial discussions, finance ministers from eurozone members were strongly supported by Spain, Portugal, and Ireland, countries that previously bowed down to the demands of Eurozone officials and live with the austerity programs needed to meet goals and have since come out on the other side in better economic shape.
How should these nations be feeling now that France and Italy might not be disciplined for failing the guidelines of the currency union when they did? Why should Spain, Portugal, and Ireland continue to argue that Greece needs to follow the rules strictly when they see France and Italy not facing any penalties for not meeting the rules? Spain is already facing some pressure from its Podemos party, which is not unlike the one that was elected in Greece to reduce the country's austerity.
As Rehn argued, if the rules are watered down it "erodes economic stability and sustained growth." It severely weakens the eurozone and even threatens the existence of the currency union.
The real issue for the eurozone concerns the possibility of erecting a political union.
The currency union cannot exist if there is no political union that creates one common economic policy for the entire union. If a group of nations are going to have a fixed exchange rate and a free flow of capital between each and every country then it cannot have separate, individual economic programs.
This is a lot for a sovereign nation to give up. Over time, however, it is expected that the benefits of this surrender of sovereign control will exceed the costs of having to give them up.
Hopefully, those benefits are accruing quickly. The Eurozone is moving into new territory. The European Central Bank is beginning a round one of quantitative easing, following the recent efforts of the Federal Reserve System in the United States. The effort is aimed at stopping the decline in economic growth and the possibility of deflation.
There is the question about how successful quantitative easing might be. Many analysts, myself included, question the success of the three rounds of quantitative easing on the part of the Federal Reserve and even though Mario Draghi, the president of the ECB, has expressed doubts in the past about how successful the Federal Reserve's efforts had been, the European Central Bank has now entered on the path to executing such a policy.
This article is commentary by an independent contributor. At the time of publication, the author held no positions in the stocks mentioned.