Darden Restaurants Can Still Feed Profit-Hungry Investors

The company is serious about getting customers back to Olive Garden.
By Richard Saintvilus ,

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- When it comes to passing value judgments on stocks, it's often in the eye of the beholder. But when price serves as the biggest obstacle, it's a sign to take a closer look.

In the case of specialty restaurant operatorDarden Restaurants (DRI) - Get Report, owner of LongHorn Steakhouse and Olive Garden, it's time to take a closer look.

Darden shares are not cheap, trading at over 61 times earnings, but the stock will still feed profit-hungry investors. The company reports fiscal third-quarter results Friday and investors would do well to ignore the P/E and focus on Darden's execution.

Aside from Olive Garden and LongHorn Steakhouse, Darden also runs The Capital Grille, Eddie V's and Yard House. Comparable same-restaurant sales are on the rise at all of its restaurants.

In the most recent quarter, for instance, increased traffic led adjusted earnings per share surging 133.3% above last year, while and its adjusted revenue climbed 5% -- both results beat Wall Street expectations.

Moreover, Darden raised the low end of its full-year earnings per share, suggesting it expects the momentum to continue. Its updated outlook calls for adjusted earnings to be in the range of $2.25 to $2.30 per share, up from prior range of $2.22 to $2.30 per share. This translate to to an increase of 32% to 34.5% above earnings of $1.71 per share for full-year 2014.

Analysts have responsed by raising their own estimates, not just for this quarter and fiscal year, but also for full-year 2016, where projected earnings of $2.61 was raised by 2% just in the past 90 days.

This means, despite Darden's P/E of 61 translating to three times the average of stocks in S&P 500 (SPX) index, the shares are trading at just 24 times forward earnings as of Thursday's close of $64.87. For some context, that's just seven points higher than the forward earnings estimates of S&P 500 stocks.

Why the optimism? The company's focus is on getting customers back to its anchor restaurants, starting with Olive Garden. Darden's initiatives include developing new menu items, simplifying its kitchen operations and revamping the look and appeal of its restaurant to give customers a better experience. Perhaps equally important, Darden has embraced technology by ramping up its online-ordering platform, hoping to lower overhead costs.

That second-quarter adjusted earnings per share surged 133% is a direct result of these moves. What's important to consider here, however, Darden is also spending a lot of money to execute these changes -- as evident by the 6% and 9% jump in total costs of sales and selling, general and administrative expenses, respectively. Both figures outpaced the company's 5% revenue growth.

In other words, while adjusted earnings may continue to improve, Darden's operating earnings won't immediately appear impressive. That's where investors' expectations for the next couple of quarters should be. For fiscal-year 2016, however, the story is likely to be different, which makes Darden stock attractive today.

This article is commentary by an independent contributor. At the time of publication, the author held no positions in the stocks mentioned.

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