Charts Show FedEx Is Poised for a Big Move (Up or Down) After Earnings

The company is scheduled to report before the opening bell on Wednesday.
By Richard Suttmeier ,

 NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Shares of package-delivery company FedEx (FDX) - Get Report began the week with a pre-earnings rally of 2.3% on Monday after Deutsche Bank raised its price target to $210 and maintained a buy rating on the stock. The research call was echoed by Oppenheimer.

The technicals shown on daily and weekly charts for FedEx support both a positive or a negative reaction to the FedEx earnings report. 

The daily chart shows that shares of FedEx are above their 50-day simple moving average, which is a technical positive. The price action since December, however, shows what technicians call a pennant pattern, which is a technical setup for either an upward surge or a downward slump.

The weekly chart shows that FedEx shares are above their key weekly moving average, which is a technical positive, but the stock closed last week below that moving average. The stock's momentum reading is declining, which is a technical negative.

Analysts expect FedEx on Wednesday to report earnings of $1.88 a share for its fiscal third quarter ended in February. The company missed earnings estimates on March 19 a year ago and on Dec. 17. In between, the company beat estimates on June 18 and Sept. 17. The earnings beats resulted in higher stock prices, while the earnings misses were followed by share price weakness.

The positive research reports from Deutsche Bank and Oppenheimer has the stock posed for a positive earnings outcome.

Here are two issues to consider, however.

The U.S. Census Bureau reported that retail sales declined for the third month in a row in February. A slowdown in consumer purchases should be a drag on package deliveries.

The U.S. Postal Service has been delivering packages on Sunday since mid-December and could be taking market share from FedEx. A major percentage of the Sunday deliveries are from Amazon (AMZN) - Get Report.

Let's take a look at the performance measures for FedEx, key trading levels, and analysis of daily and weekly charts.

FedEx ($177.31 at Monday's close) gained 21% in 2014, and has tacked on another 2.1% so far in 2015. The stock is 3.4% below its all-time intraday high of $183.51 set on Dec. 8, and is 5.5% above its 2015 low of $168.03 set on Feb. 2.

Investors looking to buy FedEx after earnings should place a good 'til canceled limit order to purchase the stock if it drops to $152.04, which is a key level on technical charts until the end of June.

Investors looking to book profits should place a good till canceled limit order to sell the stock if it rises to $185.47, which is a key level on technical charts until the end of the month.

Let's take a look at the daily chart for FedEx.


Courtesy of MetaStock Xenith

The daily chart shows that the stock has been above its 200-day simple moving average (green line) since June 24, 2013, when the average was $95.58.

At the upper right of the daily chart is the pennant pattern that will likely be broken at Wednesday's open.

The downtrend on the pennant connects the highs since the all-time high of $183.51 set on Dec. 8 A positive reaction to earnings should result in an open above this downtrend line at $178.83 on March 18.

The uptrend at the bottom of the pennant begins from the low of $163.57 set on Dec.17, which was the reaction low to the earnings miss reported on Dec.17. A negative reaction to earnings should result in an open below the uptrend line at $170.62 on March 18.

Let's take a look at the weekly chart for FedEx.


Courtesy of MetaStock Xenith

The weekly chart for FedEx ended last week negative with the stock below its key weekly moving average at $175.07. The momentum reading declined from 59.49 at the end of last week to a reading of 57.66 for this week, as of Monday's close.

This article is commentary by an independent contributor. At the time of publication, the author held no positions in the stocks mentioned.

Loading ...