Charts for Best Buy Show a Stock That Trades in Short-Term Trends
NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Best Buy (BBY) - Get Report reports quarterly results before the opening bell on Tuesday and is defending a winning streak of eight consecutive quarters of beating analysts earnings-per-share estimates.
Best Buy is a major retailer of consumer electronics from kitchen appliances, TVs and computers to small handheld devices including cell phones. On Friday, Best Buy and Sprint (S) - Get Report announced their "Best Buy One Plan" advertised as a low-price cell phone package that includes unlimited talk, text and data.
Analysts expect Best Buy to report earnings of $1.35 a share for the fiscal fourth quarter ended Jan. 31.
Let's take a look at Best Buy's performance measures, key trading levels and analysis of daily and weekly charts.
Best Buy's ($38.10) stock was down 2.3% last year and has lost another 2.3% so far in 2015.
Over the past two years, the stock traded as high as $44.66 on Nov. 13, 2013, and as low as $22.15 on Jan. 31, 2014, down 50%. From that low to the 2014 high of $40.03 set on Dec. 23, the stock rallied 81%.
The technicals on daily and weekly charts help short-term investors capture a portion of this significant short-term volatility.
Investors looking to buy Best Buy on weakness following its earnings report should enter a good 'til canceled limit order to buy weakness this week's technical level at $35.77. Investors looking to book profits should enter good 'til canceled limit orders to sell strength to monthly and quarterly technical levels at $41.04 and $53.89, respectively.
Let's take a look at the daily chart for Best Buy:
Courtesy of MetaStock Xenith
The daily chart for Best Buy ($38.10) shows the huge downside price gap between Jan. 15, 2014, and Jan. 16, 2014. This gap pushed the stock well below its 200-day simple moving average (green line), then at $33.74.
Technicians say that price gaps are almost always filled, and this proved to be the case for Best Buy.
Note how the 200-day SMA provided technical resistance between July 3, 2014, and July 31, 2014. This moving average shifted to being a technical support between Aug. 26 and Oct. 14.
The price gap to the Jan. 14, 2014, low of $35.67 has been a magnet since Nov. 14.
So far in 2015, the stock traded as low as $33.17 on Jan. 15 and is positioned just above its 50-day SMA (blue line) at $37.56.
If Best Buy fails to hold its 50-day SMA at $37.56 the downside risk is to the 200-day SMA at $33.20.
Let's take a look at the weekly chart for Best Buy:
Courtesy of MetaStock Xenith
The weekly chart for Best Buy stays positive given a close this week above its key weekly moving average (red line) at $37.61. Note that weekly momentum is rising at 68.79 between the oversold threshold of 20 and the overbought threshold of 80.
This chart shows the lower highs since the first half of 2006. Note that the 200-week SMA (green line) has been a longer-term "reversion to the mean" since August 2007.
The technicals show buying opportunities the week of Dec. 19, 2008, from $28.10 and at the weekly close of $14.88 on Nov. 18, 2002.
These dates and prices defined cycle lows when the weekly chart shifted to positive. This technical signal is defined by a weekly close above the key weekly moving average with momentum rising out of oversold territory above the oversold threshold of 20.
The technicals thus provided opportunities for short-term investors to capture volatility between November 2008 and April 2010 and again from the low in December 2012 to the high in November 2013.
Investors using a buy and hold strategy in Best Buy are likely to be underwater on this investment.
This article is commentary by an independent contributor. At the time of publication, the author held no positions in the stocks mentioned.