Buy ConAgra for Its Expanding Product Line on the Expectation of Longer Term Profits

Investors in ConAgra stock are paying just 15 times forward earnings today for better profits next year.
By Richard Saintvilus ,

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Known for popular brands like Chef Boyardee, Orville Redenbachers, Hunts and Slim Jim, ConAgra Foods  (CAG) - Get Report has fed consumers for almost a century. But with shares down 4% so far in 2015, investors are hungry for higher profits.

While Omaha, Neb.-based ConAgra has made improvements to boost its bottom line, including various acquisitions, profits may not come as quickly as investors would like, given the impact of a strong U.S. dollar. But on Thursday when the company releases its fiscal third-quarter earnings results, investors would do well to focus more on the long term and not just fiscal 2015.

Must Read:

10 Stocks Billionaire John Paulson Loves

Like its competitors Kraft (KRFT) and Campbell Soup (CPB) - Get Report, ConAgra is adjusting to consumers' new spending priorities -- pursuit of healthier foods and more choices, all at competitive prices. ConAgra purchased private-label food maker Ralcorp a little more than two years ago.

ConAgra is striving to meet these demands without sacrificing sales or gross margins. The latter has come under pressure of late, declining to 21.41% in November 2014 from 22.74% a year earlier. ConAgra is feeling pressure in its private-brands segment, whose fiscal second-quarter sales diminished 5% compared with the previous year's quarter.

Competitive pricing has been one of the key challenges affecting the company's business. And currency issues, whereby sales are devalued in overseas markets because of the strengthening dollar, heighten the pressure. 

Accordingly, ConAgra lowered its full-year 2015 earnings-per-share projections, anticipating that its earnings would fall into the range of $2.13 to $2.18. Assuming earnings arrive in the mid range, or $2.15 per share, this would translate into an annual decline of almost 1%, down from the $2.17 of a year ago.

Even considering the best-case scenario of full-year earnings per share of $2.18 (at the high end of Yahoo! Finance analysts' projections), this would amount to less than 0.50% growth.

ConAgra, which has grown its sales thoughout the past decade from about $14 billion in 2005 to about $17 billion in 2014, has tackled difficulties before. With cost-cutting initiatives, better marketing and a new CEO, the company projects higher sales and widening margins for both its commercial and consumer foods segments in the quarters ahead.

Analysts polled by Yahoo! Finance anticipate ConAgra's earnings for full year 2016 to be on average $2.29 per share, a rise of 7% above 2015. That would mean investors would pay today almost 15 times forward earnings for better profits next year. Compared with a forward P/E of 17 on average for the broader market, that suggests the stock is a decent value. The stock's price on Wednesday at the market's close was $34.94, representing a 3.65% decline for the year thus far.

This article is commentary by an independent contributor. At the time of publication, the author held no positions in the stocks mentioned.

Loading ...