Burlington Stores Remains a Good Deal Despite an Expensive Stock Price

A prominent analyst says the The Burlington, N.J. company can maintain solid growth for the next five years.
By Richard Saintvilus ,

NEW YORK (TheStreet) –- You'd have to search long and hard to find a time when shares of "off-price" retailer Burlington Stores (BURL) - Get Report were cheap. And this suggests its investors are not as price-sensitive as the consumers that shop at its stores. But that doesn't mean new investors who buy the stock today aren't getting a good deal.

In a research note to investors last September, Moody's Research analyst Scott Tuhy named Burlington Stores as one of the three largest off-price retailers that can grow 6% to 8% in the next five years, against just 4% growth for the broader retail industry. “Getting a good deal will always be in style," Tuhy wrote.

Since Tuhy's note, Burlington shares have soared more than 46%, from around $40 to its recent 52-week high of $59.18. And ahead of Burlington's fourth-quarter and full-year results Tuesday, investors want to know what value remains in Burlington shares.

In December, Morgan Stanley named Burlington among several retailers that can benefit from cheaper oil prices, given its popularity with "lower-income consumers." The more money being saved on gas prices, that money is likely to spent in Burlington stores. And with gas prices now a six-year lows, Burlington is likely to see better results in the quarters ahead.

Burlington, headquartered in Burlington, NJ., has already realized some of Tuhy's optimisms. The shares are already up 21% in 2015, dominating not only the broader averages, but also the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) - Get Report, which has gained just 3% on the year.

Burlington has rewarded current investors, yes. But at price-to-earnings ratio of 130, Burlington stock is far from cheap. Not only is that six times the average P/E of S&P 500 companies, it's also more than five times the average P/E of companies in the SPDR S&P Retail ETF -- home to prominent retailers like Amazon (AMZN) - Get Report and Home Depot (HD) - Get Report.

What new investors should remember, however, is that good companies are rarely cheap, especially when raising their business outlook. Parting with or ignoring a winner like Burlington can be equally risky. And as Tuhy noted, Burlington is poised to outperform the overall apparel sector by 4% through 2020. This means, despite their premium price, there is plenty of value left in these shares.

And according to Yahoo! Finance, analysts that cover Burlington have also become more bullish. Aside from having a consensus buy rating, they have raised Burlington's estimates since the end of the last quarter by 4% to $1.32 per share. And just in the last 90 days, earnings estimates have risen for both full-year 2015 and 2016 by 3% and 4%, respectively.

The reason for the increase? Burlington's own execution. In its third quarter, for instance, the company posted 9% jump in revenue, reaching $1.157 billion, buoyed by strong 5.2% increase in comparable same-store sales, which topped last year's mark of 3.9%. This indicates the growth acceleration Burlington is producing by generating higher traffic into its stores.

The company is also making money from the revenue it generates, posting 16% jump in adjusted Ebitda (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization), reversing last year's 5-cent loss to a profit of 16 cents per share.

And supporting Tuhy optimism is economic data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, which recently released a report that showed a 0.3% and 0.4% rise in personal income and disposable personal income, respectively, for the month of January. This followed December's 0.3% increase in personal income and the same month's 0.3% increase in disposable personal income.

This led to Kiplinger suggesting that consumer confidence in 2015 is at its highest level since 2007. When consumers feel better about their financial position they spend more money, which bodes well for Burlington's growth prospects into the future. Coupled with the company's solid execution and rising estimates, Burlington shares still look like a good deal, despite their recent climb.

This article is commentary by an independent contributor. At the time of publication, the author held no positions in the stocks mentioned.

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