An Exercise in Euro-Selling
"Sell."
"Sell."
"Sell."
"Sell."
"Sell."
You've just stepped into a training session for new euro traders. This exercise is perfect for neophytes. But for the professionals, we have to step up the pace. Their calisthenics go like this: "Hit the bid. Hit the bid. Short. Short. Hit the bid. Hit the bid. Short. Short. Sell. Hit the bid. Bury him. Short. Short. Sell." (This litany is accompanied by the frantic stockpiling of pink sell tickets.)
From day one, what a fiasco this euro's been. The chart looks like a perfect sledding hill for my kids, couple of bumps, not too hard a slope so I don't have to be at the end of it to catch them, but certainly going in only one direction: down.
And it goes down on everything. What do you do if the president is impeached? Sell the euro. What do you do if he is found innocent? Sell the euro. What do you do if there is talk of war in Kosovo? Sell the euro. What do you do when war breaks out? Sell the euro.
Actually, it seems to be the answer to anything.
I have this image of some young trader on some bank trading desk going over the hoot-and-holler saying "I'll make the euro $1.05 to $1.06, 1 million up," and before the words are spoken, every single forex bank in the world has drilled this hapless fawn with euros.
What's amazing about this, of course, is that when the euro started, we had to hear every talking head and read every sage talk about how the euro was going to supplant the dollar quickly as the world's currency. We had people in our offices urging us to buy Europe because of the euro. We had people who had written the obituary for the dollar at major investment firms.
Where are these people now? Same place they were when we heard them rave about the euro: in their cozy jobs continuing to dispense meaningless advice without any accountability.
Guess that's right where the journalists want them!
James J. Cramer is manager of a hedge fund and co-founder of TheStreet.com. At time of publication, his fund had no positions in the stocks mentioned, although holdings can change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Cramer's writings provide insights into the dynamics of money management and are not a solicitation for transactions. While he cannot provide investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to comment on his column at
letters@thestreet.com.