5 Things to Watch for at Tonight's Republican Presidential Debate

Just 13 days after their last showdown, Donald Trump, Ben Carson, Jeb Bush and friends are back for round four.
By Emily Stewart ,

If it seems like the last Republican presidential debate just happened, it's because it pretty much did. Just 13 days after their last showdown, Donald Trump, Ben Carson, Jeb Bush and friends are back for round four, even while many of the wounds from last time around are still fresh.

Here are some key moments from the previous debate, which took place in Boulder, Colo. and aired on CNBC: Ted Cruz skewered the media; Trump talked up his affinity for mixing it up with guns; and the bromance between Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio came to an abrupt end on live TV.

This time around, network host Fox Business has promised a more serious discussion with "real questions" and a "real debate on our economy."

Which is all well and good until you realize the next debate isn't until mid-December, meaning that if candidates want to stay in the limelight for the next four weeks, they're probably going to want to get a little weird at tonight's debate. 

"This is an opportunity for people to try to shape the narrative and drive the kind of media coverage that their campaigns and other campaigns will get moving forward," said Oren Cass, a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute for Policy Research, a conservative-leaning think tank based in New York. "So based on who's up and who's down in the polls going into this debate, you can expect that those on the margins and in decline are most likely to try to launch new attacks, and those in the lead and on the rise are most likely to be on the receiving end of those."

In other words, we can probably expect more attacks over fantasy tax schemes and senatorial attendance records -- and, yet again, listen to Trump explain why his four bankruptcies are par for the course.

TheStreet will be covering the debate live this evening starting at 7 p.m. EST. Here are five things to watch out for before it happens.

1. Are We Getting Bored?

Trump's entry into the Republican race has spurred an unprecedented surge in debate ratings, with viewers eager to see what the bombastic billionaire will say next. But even the Trump effect has its limits.

The first GOP debate, aired on Fox, drew in a record 24 million viewers, and the second debate on CNN brought in 23 million. But by the time the third debate rolled around last month, viewership had dropped to 14 million. Tonight, it will likely fall even more.

"If past history is any guide, both in the general election and earlier primary debates, the audience tends to go down over time, and that certainly has been the case this fall," said Chris Arterton, professor of political management and former dean at George Washington University's Graduate School of Political Management. "Given that Fox Business channel is not CNBC, I think we're likely to see even a fewer number of people."

Not that Trump is to really blame for the drop in ratings -- his presence is likely still the biggest draw. But the Donald does appear to be reining it in a bit, leading more onlookers to ponder whether his candidacy should be taken more seriously. And over time, some of his shiny-new-thing appeal is beginning to fade.

His Saturday Night Live appearance over the weekend, while drawing in record numbers of viewers, was largely panned as boring, the one thing Trump can't afford to be.

If this one goes that direction, maybe we should just cancel the debates all together.

2. Can Jeb Fix It?

Bush is going to need a lot more than that exclamation point at the end of his campaign logo and a "hell yeah" on killing baby Hitler to bring some energy back into his bid. And so far, he's 0-3 on the debate front.

"I think the one thing that everyone's going to be focused on is how Jeb Bush does, and whether he can inject some energy, some confidence, into his performance. He's strong on policy, he's strong on substance, he just needs to show that he really wants to be president of the United States," said Lisa Nelson, CEO of the American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC), a nonprofit organization of conservative state legislators and private sector representatives.

Bush has hired a media coach in hopes of improving his performance and said in an ABC interview that he hopes the consultant will help him get better. "He's telling me to be me. He's telling me to own what I believe," he said, adding, "My problem in the debates -- I have to untrain myself to answer the questions that are asked."

Everyone in the Bush camp, including Bush himself, knows that the stakes are high this evening

"People have been almost writing the obituaries for Jeb Bush after the last debate, and he knows that," said Steven Greene, an associate professor of political science at North Carolina State University. "He's got so much money pledged for his super PAC, that you really don't want to write off somebody like that who's got so much institutional support. But at some point, you just can't keep on having such disappointing debate performances."

More policy-focused questions may give Bush a boost. "To the extent that the moderators really do ask substantive questions vs. 'gotcha' horse race questions, that would be a forum in which Bush would do better," said Arterton.

3. Inter-Candidate Attacks

Given the sharp criticism CNBC faced in the wake of the October 28 debate, the stakes are extra high tonight for moderators Neil Cavuto, Maria Bartiromo and Gerard Baker and for host Fox Business. The network has promised an elevated level of discussion and fairer questions, meaning if candidates are going to want a fight, they will have to pick them themselves.

"Will Donald Trump attack the good doctor? Will the problems that are showing up in Marco Rubio's background and Carson's background become part of the interplay between candidates, assuming that they're not going to be ask directly by the moderators?" said Arterton.

But republicans may should be careful what they wish for, because brushing off questions as liberal media conspiracy is one thing, but ignoring a jab from a fellow contender is another.

"It's more difficult to backhand and flippantly avoid a question if it's coming from one of your fellow candidates than it is if it's coming from the moderators because of the antipathy towards the media as evidenced in much of the Republican base constituency," said Arterton.

On the attack front, the most interesting candidate to watch may be Carson. He is facing mounting scrutiny from the media and other candidates over his rather imaginative recalling of his past, but his mild manner makes him a tough nut to crack.

"At this point, it seems like Ben Carson is fairly impervious to paying a price for saying stupid things," said Greene. "[His] personality just kind of de-escalates these sorts of things, diminishes them."

4. Where Art Thou, Ted?

"Ted Cruz is leading the most ambitious national campaign no one sees coming," declared Slate political correspondent Jamelle Bouie in a recent profile on the Texas Senator. Might we finally see flashes of what Cruz, a self-proclaimed outsider with an insider resume, has in store for the months to come?

A RealClearPolitics polling average has Cruz running fourth among his fellow Republican primary contenders, well behind Trump and Carson, who have more than 24% support, and slightly behind Rubio's 11.8% (Cruz is listed at 9.6%). But when it comes to media coverage, at this stage in the race, Cruz feels almost light years behind.

"With fewer people to compete against, this might be a time when Ted Cruz [says], 'I'm going to make my move,'" said Greene.

Cruz has four super PACs backing him: Keep the Promise PAC, Keep the Promise I, Keep the Promise II and Keep the Promise III (no one pulled any brain muscles on the naming effort). And while the groups aren't doing much spending yet, they've got cash ready and waiting. "He's got a lot of money, he's invested a lot in organization, and he's got a lot of grassroots support," Greene said.

Cruz isn't the only one who might want -- or need -- to make some extra noise tonight. Carly Fiorina's star has faded significantly since her September surge, and John Kasich is inches away from falling victim to Democratic contender Martin O'Malley's "unidentified man" fate.

Kentucky Senator Rand Paul continues to fail to resonate with voters as well. "The libertarian philosophy has yet to surface in a way that makes it strong or palpable within the party," said Arterton. "It's clearly something that Rand Paul has all to himself. It makes me wonder whether it's the messenger rather than the message."

5. Can, and Will, the Candidates Finally Talk Policy?

Most of the debate discussions up to now have been pretty policy specifics-light. If that changes tonight, it may be better for some contenders than it is for others.

"I don't know that either [Trump or Carson] is capable of participating in a more substantive policy debate," said Cass. "And that's what you've seen. For all of Donald Trump's bombastic language when invited to attack a candidate or talk about himself, he doesn't even attempt to jump in during the actual policy discussions, nor does Ben Carson."

And it's not like they don't have a need to clarify their positions.

"Does Donald Trump actually believe in limited government? Trump has taken economically liberal positions in the past on a number of key issues, like health care," said Emily Ekins, a research fellow at the Cato Institute, a libertarian think tank headquartered in Washington, D.C. "He should take the opportunity tonight to clarify what makes him a conservative and if he believes in the free enterprise system and in a limited central government."

What could be losses for Trump, Carson and other policy-averse candidates might be gains for others, such as Rubio, Kasich and Bush.

But the real winners could be voters.

"There are a few issues that are economic that there really are serious divides in the Republican candidates. Trade is one, and immigration is the other. If the moderators are interested in stoking a substantive policy debate, those are where they'll focus some of the questions. It will be interesting to see the extent to which the candidates are willing to fight about that, who thinks the positions they've taken are actually winning hands with primary voters," Cass said.

The next Republican Presidential debate starts at 9 p.m. ET this Tuesday, 11/10. Join TheStreet.com for live coverage of the event, starting with the under-card debate at 7 p.m. Tune in for stories, videos, and more, and make sure to follow us at @TheStreet on Twitter for live commentary by TheStreet Editor-in-Chief Jeffrey Kanige during the debate.

This article is commentary by an independent contributor. At the time of publication, the author held no positions in the stocks mentioned.

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