Will This Downgrade Hurt U.S. Steel (X) Stock Today?

Nomura downgrades U.S. Steel (X) to 'neutral' from 'buy.'
By Lindsay Ingram ,

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Nomura downgraded U.S. Steel (X) - Get Report to "neutral" from "buy" on Tuesday.

The analyst firm lowered its price target for the steel manufacturer to $21 from $37.

Nomura analysts Curt Woodworth and Alexander M. Burnes also lowered their 2015 EPS estimates for the company to a loss of 75 cents from a profit of $1.80 a share. The analysts expect U.S. Steel to report earnings of 83 cents a share for 2016, down from previous estimates of $3.30 a share.

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The analysts said they believe U.S. steel manufacturers will be unable to maintain their "strong price premiums" to the global market as a result of "unfavorable costs shifts." Those shifts should result in prices determined by EAF marginal cost levels.

"We see scrap prices remaining weak over the remainder of 2015, as exports must be able to compete against Turkish billet levels, in our view," the analysts wrote." We do see some potential for obsolete prices to recover in April as demand recovers and flows are impacted by reduced collection rates. The sharp fall in scrap has caused US sheet prices to fall $100/ton since the start of 2015, and recent trade press suggests large volume deals near $460-480/ton, suggesting US HRC has declined $200/ton since the 2014 peak."

Nomura lowered its HRC steel forecast for 2015 and 2016 to $500 and $520 a ton, down from $580 and $610 a ton, respectively.

TheStreet Ratings team rates UNITED STATES STEEL CORP as a Hold with a ratings score of C. TheStreet Ratings Team has this to say about their recommendation:

"We rate UNITED STATES STEEL CORP (X) a HOLD. The primary factors that have impacted our rating are mixed -- some indicating strength, some showing weaknesses, with little evidence to justify the expectation of either a positive or negative performance for this stock relative to most other stocks. The company's strengths can be seen in multiple areas, such as its good cash flow from operations, growth in earnings per share and increase in net income. However, as a counter to these strengths, we also find weaknesses including relatively poor performance when compared with the S&P 500 during the past year and poor profit margins."

Highlights from the analysis by TheStreet Ratings Team goes as follows:

  • Net operating cash flow has significantly increased by 3600.00% to $245.00 million when compared to the same quarter last year. In addition, UNITED STATES STEEL CORP has also vastly surpassed the industry average cash flow growth rate of -57.24%.
  • UNITED STATES STEEL CORP's earnings per share improvement from the most recent quarter was slightly positive. The company has demonstrated a pattern of positive earnings per share growth over the past two years. We feel that this trend should continue. This trend suggests that the performance of the business is improving. During the past fiscal year, UNITED STATES STEEL CORP turned its bottom line around by earning $0.63 versus -$11.68 in the prior year. This year, the market expects an improvement in earnings ($1.88 versus $0.63).
  • The net income growth from the same quarter one year ago has exceeded that of the Metals & Mining industry average, but is less than that of the S&P 500. The net income increased by 1.9% when compared to the same quarter one year prior, going from $270.00 million to $275.00 million.
  • The gross profit margin for UNITED STATES STEEL CORP is currently extremely low, coming in at 14.88%. Regardless of X's low profit margin, it has managed to increase from the same period last year. Despite the mixed results of the gross profit margin, the net profit margin of 6.75% trails the industry average.
  • In its most recent trading session, X has closed at a price level that was not very different from its closing price of one year earlier. This is probably due to its weak earnings growth as well as other mixed factors. We feel that the combination of its price rise over the last year and its current price-to-earnings ratio relative to its industry tend to reduce its upside potential.
  • You can view the full analysis from the report here: X Ratings Report
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