NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Tesla Motors (TSLA) - Get Report missed the mark by a significant distance when it reported its fourth-quarter earnings last month. But will the electric car maker do so again in the first quarter?

Tesla reported a loss of 13 cents a share on revenue of $956.66 million in the fourth quarter, which came up well short of the consensus estimate of earnings of 31 cents a share on revenue of $1.225 billion from analysts polled by Thomson Reuters.

Based on data through the first quarter thus far, the Elon Musk-led company is on track to miss again.

Here are some comparisons for Tesla's performance in California in 2013 and 2014:

California 2013 Total Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) Sales: 21,912

California 2013 Tesla Sales: 8,347

Tesla 2013 market share in CA: 38%

California 2014 Total BEV Sales: 29,536 (up 34.7%)

California 2014 Tesla Sales: 6,110 (down 26.8%)

Tesla 2014 Market Share CA: 20.5%

The situation also worsened in Norway:

Tesla Norway Jan. and Feb.

2013: 563

2014: 392

Tesla Norway March

2014: 1,493

2015 March 1-22: 371

In the first quarter 2014, Tesla delivered 6,457 vehicles worldwide, with 32%, or 2,057, vehicles in Norway. The company has guided for 9,500 deliveries in the first quarter 2015, a year-over-year increase of 45%. But from January 1 to March 22, the company has delivered just 765 vehicles in Norway.

One can extrapolate first-quarter sales in Norway to drop potentially by 60%. Keep in mind also that the Norwegian Krone is down 30% and the Euro down 25% year-over-year from the first quarter 2014.

And the North American market remains a variable. Tesla struggled in January and February, with an estimated 2,250 cars delivered as estimated by InsideEVs.com.

These numbers include the 1,400 cars that "spilled over" from late December, as Tesla had difficulty tracking down customers to take delivery, and blamed holiday vacations, among other things. The first quarter of 2015 was also supposed to be a big quarter because the all-wheel-drive (AWD) "D" version of Tesla's Model S was supposed to dominate deliveries based on pent-up demand.

So given the above data, Tesla would appear to be on track to miss estimates for the first quarter. And it seems many investors are betting on a miss, as short interest in Tesla stands at 24.05%.

In order to make the March quarter, Tesla would have to see a dramatic uptick in deliveries in the last few weeks of the quarter. That's possible, but the question is how likely it is. We will find out when the company reports March quarter results, probably in May.

Insight from TheStreet's Research Team:

Carolyn Boroden commented on Tesla in a recent post on RealMoney.com. Here is what she had to say about the stock:

Tesla definitely has some upside potential. At least I think it does. Let's take a look at some of my charts and I'll make my case for it and define my risk.

Starting with a weekly chart, the first thing I can tell you is that TSLA is holding above key weekly support that includes the confluence of a 0.618 retracement of a major swing, a 1.272 extension of another prior swing, along with a 100% projection of a prior decline. The support is illustrated on the chart below at the $182.90 to $185.89 area. The actual low was made mid-January directly within this key zone of support. We have recently retested this support decision and so far have been able to hold above it.

As far as timing cycles, on the weekly chart I've found timing cycles that are coordinating with the current retest. These cycles came due the weeks ending March 13 and 20 and suggest a possible reversal back to the upside.

View the chart here. These cycles came due the weeks ending March 13 and 20 and suggest a possible reversal back to the upside. Let's look at the daily chart next.

Tesla Daily Chart

On the daily chart of TSLA we can see the retest of key daily/weekly support along with some daily timing cycles that were evident at the last low, made on March 13. The timing histogram below the chart illustrates calendar day timing projections. The other dates on the chart illustrate the projections in trading days. Both of these also tell us that the odds for an upside reversal were higher than usual.

Now if you look at the daily chart with price clearly below many of the key moving averages, we have to consider this a countertrend trade setup. Countertrend setups are typically lower probability than trend setups; however, the odds for these time/price trades will be higher than any others. The reason for this is the fact that there is both time and price present as we are testing key support. This methodology also has more predictive value than other technical methods. Also, the good news is that the risk can be clearlydefined in advance!

Bottom line, I am looking at a bullish options strategy in this one due to the time/price support parameters recently tested. I will consider myself wrong on any new entries if the January lows are taken out. If this trade does start to play out in my favor, the initial upside target I would look at for a countertrend move comes in around the $212 to $217 area. The buy side in TSLA has already triggered on the lower time frame charts. I have one last chart to help fine-tune this idea. Let's take a look at the 30-minute chart next.

Tesla 30-Minute Chart

The 30-minute chart illustrates a pullback zone I'm interested in for an entry on the buy side. Actually, there are two areas that I want to watch here. First the $191.67 to $193.13 stands out for possible support on a pullback. The second area comes in at $189.76 to $189.85. If I enter TSLA around one of these areas, I can define my risk either below the zone or below the recent time/price low made on March 13. Let's see if TSLA can come back!

If the recent low is taken out instead, I will back off the buy side until further notice.

Tesla Weekly Chart

- Carolyn Boroden, 'Testing Tesla: What's the Risk?' originally published 3/18/2015 on RealMoney.com.

Want more information like this from Carolyn Boroden BEFORE your stock moves? Learn more about RealMoney.com now.

Separately, TheStreet Ratings team rates TESLA MOTORS INC as a Sell with a ratings score of D. TheStreet Ratings Team has this to say about their recommendation: 

"We rate TESLA MOTORS INC (TSLA) a SELL. This is driven by multiple weaknesses, which we believe should have a greater impact than any strengths, and could make it more difficult for investors to achieve positive results compared to most of the stocks we cover. The company's weaknesses can be seen in multiple areas, such as its deteriorating net income, disappointing return on equity, weak operating cash flow, poor profit margins and generally high debt management risk."

You can view the full analysis from the report here: TSLA Ratings Report