Weak Hourly Wage Growth Number Is Misleading: Economist

The headline average hourly earnings statistic has been skewed lower by the type of jobs that are getting created, one economist says.
By Scott Gamm ,

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- While Americans' average hourly wages rose a disappointing 0.1% in February compared to January, the statistic doesn't tell the whole story about wages, one economist says.

"It's hourly earnings, so it's not everyone in the labor force," said Jerry Webman, chief economist at OppenheimerFunds. "Secondly, it's very much affected by who gets jobs as opposed to who doesn't get jobs. For example, mining jobs and oil industry support jobs declined, where retail health care jobs increased, and those tend to be lower paying jobs. So it's not as if people are making less -- it has something to do with the share of jobs we did create."

Average hourly earnings did rise 2% year-over-year in February, compared to 2.2% growth in January, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Friday.

Webman said the addition of lower-quality jobs has slowed average wage growth, but there are already signs that higher-quality jobs are entering the market.

"Construction jobs increased in February, which is a surprise since there was bad weather," Webman said. "These are higher paying jobs, and an indication that the household sector is feeling a little stronger since we're providing more housing."

The Federal Reserve is watching the labor market closely, as half of its mandate centers on employment. The central bank is mulling its first rate hike in almost nine years.

"The Fed has been very clear," Webman said. "They expect sometime in the middle of this year to be raising interest rates, and there's no reason to question their judgment about that at this point."

But Sterne Agee chief economist Lindsey Piegza is a bit more skeptical about a 2015 rate hike, largely because of the weak labor participation rate, which has hovered around 63% for the past year.

"While the unemployment rate continues to decline, the downward pressure reflects discouraged Americans dropping out of the labor force as much as it reflects the unemployed finding gainful employment," she wrote in a Friday note. "Thus, when looking beyond the headline rise, the Fed has plenty of reasons to be concerned regarding this morning's report."

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