Time Warner (TWX) Stock Coverage Initiated Today at Deutsche Bank

Coverage on Time Warner (TWX) shares was initiated today at Deutsche Bank with a 'buy' rating and $100 price target.
By Sebastian Silva ,

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Coverage on Time Warner (TWX)  shares was initiated today at Deutsche Bank with a "buy" rating and $100 price target. The stock closed slightly down 0.07% at $83.08 yesterday and is unchanged in pre-market trading today.

"We estimate TWX will have the second highest EBITDA growth rate in our coverage group between 2015 and 2017, at an 11% CAGR, just behind Twenty-First Century Fox (FOXA) - Get Report at 13%. Furthermore, we forecast 75% of TWX's revenue growth over this period to come from subscription and affiliate fees, with only 1% from advertising, and the remainder from Warner Brothers TV and film production," analysts said.

Time Warner's growth is also "relatively low risk," in Deutsche Bank's view, because affiliate fees are contractual and upcoming contract renewals are based on prior template deals with large distributors.

EBITDA growth is also being driven through cost efficiencies, which is also "low risk" because it is within management's control, analysts noted.

While a weaker TV ad market would pose some risk to estimates, Deutsche Bank said they have been conservative, and their view is that TV ad spend will stay intact, rather than decline.

Furthermore, New York City-based media company's operating income has the "lowest sensitivity" to advertising among the big five media companies, analysts said. Declining pay TV subscribers would represent a greater risk to Deutsche Bank's forecast, however, they don't think pay TV subscribers counts will change much over the next few years.

Separately, TheStreet Ratings team rates TIME WARNER INC as a Buy with a ratings score of A. TheStreet Ratings Team has this to say about their recommendation:

"We rate TIME WARNER INC (TWX) a BUY. This is based on the convergence of positive investment measures, which should help this stock outperform the majority of stocks that we rate. The company's strengths can be seen in multiple areas, such as its largely solid financial position with reasonable debt levels by most measures, notable return on equity, reasonable valuation levels, solid stock price performance and good cash flow from operations. We feel these strengths outweigh the fact that the company has had sub par growth in net income."

Highlights from the analysis by TheStreet Ratings Team goes as follows:

  • The debt-to-equity ratio is somewhat low, currently at 0.92, and is less than that of the industry average, implying that there has been a relatively successful effort in the management of debt levels. Along with the favorable debt-to-equity ratio, the company maintains an adequate quick ratio of 1.12, which illustrates the ability to avoid short-term cash problems.
  • The return on equity has improved slightly when compared to the same quarter one year prior. This can be construed as a modest strength in the organization. Compared to other companies in the Media industry and the overall market, TIME WARNER INC's return on equity exceeds that of both the industry average and the S&P 500.
  • Compared to its closing price of one year ago, TWX's share price has jumped by 32.80%, exceeding the performance of the broader market during that same time frame. Regarding the stock's future course, although almost any stock can fall in a broad market decline, TWX should continue to move higher despite the fact that it has already enjoyed a very nice gain in the past year.
  • TIME WARNER INC's earnings per share declined by 20.8% in the most recent quarter compared to the same quarter a year ago. This company has reported somewhat volatile earnings recently. But, we feel it is poised for EPS growth in the coming year. During the past fiscal year, TIME WARNER INC increased its bottom line by earning $4.39 versus $3.61 in the prior year. This year, the market expects an improvement in earnings ($4.65 versus $4.39).
  • You can view the full analysis from the report here: TWX Ratings Report
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