Fed Holds Rates Near Zero
(Federal Open Market Committee statement details, interviews and analysis added to this most recent update.)
WASHINGTON (
) -- The
Federal Reserve's
policymaking arm offered no surprises Tuesday as it kept the target fed funds rate unchanged at near zero.
Fed watchers expected the Federal Open Market Committee's rate announcement to be nearly identical to its last statement, and that's what they got. The FOMC voted to keep the target interest rate at zero to 0.25%, citing continued economic weakness, even as it acknowledged the ongoing recovery.
The FOMC also maintained language promising to keep interest rates low "for an extended period," which may have come as a mild surprise to some who thought the Fed would begin prepping investors for an eventual rate increase by slightly altering the phrase.
Ben Bernanke, chairman of the Federal Reserve |
Kansas City Fed President Thomas Hoenig was, as he was in the FOMC's last statement, the sole vote against the policy action. Hoenig "believed that continuing to express the expectation of exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period was no longer warranted because it could lead to a buildup of financial imbalances and increase risks to longer-run macroeconomic and financial stability," according to the statement.
Bruce McCain, chief investment strategist at Key Private Bank, found it interesting that the statement detailed Hoenig's concerns about the risks of keeping rates low.
"Whether the specific mention of financial imbalances and long-term financial stability is meant to indicate that the Fed is preparing to tighten policy or whether they are simply trying to reassure those who are worried about inflation is unclear. At the very least, it shows that those concerns are being represented and that it's playing into their discussions about when to raise rates," McCain said.
In another sign that the days of accommodating policies are nearing an end, the Fed reiterated its original schedule for unwinding supportive programs that put in place to prop up the ailing economy.
The Fed's purchases of agency mortgage-backed securities and agency debt have been nearing completion, with final transactions finishing up by the end of March. After closing several special liquidity facilities, the Fed said the remaining Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility will still close on June 30 for loans backed by new-issue commercial mortgage-backed securities and loans backed by all other types of collateral will close on March 31.
The FOMC's assessment of economic conditions was slightly more upbeat, noting a stabilizing labor market, "significant" growth to business spending on equipment and software and a moderate increase in household spending. These strengths, however, were offset with mentions of employers that are still hesitant to create jobs, sluggish income growth, lower housing wealth, tight credit, declining investment in nonresidential construction and weak housing starts."
So far, economic data for February hasn't been as negatively impacted by severe weather as some economists initially feared. Last week, retail sales exceeded expectations with growth of 0.3%, although the University of Michigan's initial read on March consumer sentiment of 72.5 disappointed forecasts for a reading of 73.8. On Monday, both industrial production and capacity utilization showed surprise growth during the month.
Doug Roberts, chief investment strategist for ChannelCapitalResearch.com, expects the low rates to remain in place for a while.
"Our central bank has a dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability," Roberts said, adding that the Fed is unlikely to start significant tightening with an unemployment rate near 10%, and the most recent reading on consumer prices actually showing deflation.
"It's not like there are mounting inflationary pressures yet, although we'll get a better sense after the latest CPI numbers are released later this week," Roberts said.
February's Consumer Price Index will be released by the Labor Department on Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET.
-- Written by Melinda Peer in New York
.