A Historic Morning for Equities; a Fossilized One for Bonds
No, the bond market has not closed in honor of the
Dow's
achievement. It just appears that way. Economic data have been the bond market's catalyst of late, and today there are no data.
As of 10 a.m. EST a total of $16.6 billion in bonds had changed hands, according to tracker
GovPX
. Volume is down 33% when compared with the average first-quarter Friday. The 30-year Treasury lately was down 12/32 to 96 4/32, its yield rising to 5.52%.
The Dow busted through 10,000 at the opening bell and has held above that level, but there's little evidence that people are allocating money in greater frequency away from bonds.
"We've really kind of delinked ourselves from equities in last several weeks to a month," said Bill Hornbarger, fixed income strategist at
A.G. Edwards
. "We've paid attention to economic fundamentals, and today there's no news. It's going to be a slow, quiet range-bound day."
Since the market has adopted this intense focus on economic data, its quietest days and weeks are those bereft of said releases. Next week's most significant release is Wednesday's
durable goods
report, so traders are already looking out to the March
employment report
, to be released April 2.
Next week a considerable amount of buying and selling will be tied to the corporate calendar, most notably
AT&T's
(T) - Get Report
megasized corporate offering. But with the recent pricing of
Peco Energy's
(PE) - Get Report
$4 billion asset-backed offering and a couple of large commercial mortgage-backed securities deals, the activity associated with hedging corporate offerings is expected to decline after next week.
"We're going to continue to chop around here. The market's put in a nice run of late, and I can see where we're due for a little correction," said Bill Kirby, co-head of government trading at
Prudential Securities
. "I could see the market pulling back here, but not a lot."
Dollar/yen was down lately by 0.52 to 117.08 yen, not far off the weekly low of 117.12 reached Wednesday. Japanese officials did not comment overnight on the yen's recent strength against the dollar. The 10-year Japanese benchmark closed down two basis points to yield 1.665%, though activity was thin ahead of a three-day holiday weekend, the
Nihon Keizei Shimbun
reported this morning.
Alan Greenspan's
remarks to the
Futures Industry Association
, conducted by satellite, didn't even include the usual nod to the strength of the U.S. economy. The chief of the
Federal Reserve
stuck to derivatives, and even the most overreaching economist couldn't find anything to dissect within this speech.