Is Warren Buffett the Loser in the Soft Drink Group with Coca-Cola (KO)?

Has billionaire Warren Buffett missed out on billions by sticking with Coca-Cola (KO) for so long?
By Andrew Meola ,

NEW YORK ( TheStreet) -- Billionaire Warren Buffett is admired by investors far and wide for his investing strategy and business acumen.

Buffett built Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) - Get Report from a textile company into a corporation with a market cap of more than $350 billion. Berkshire shares averaged a 19.7% compounded annual gain in per share book value from 1965-2013 with Buffett as chairman of the company.

His investing strategy preaches that discipline, patience, and value consistently outperform the market, and he tries to acquire great companies that trade at a discount to their intrinsic value. Once he gets a stake, Buffett seeks to hold onto it for a long time. He will only invest in businesses that he understands, and always insists on a margin of safety.

But Buffett is far from perfect, and some of his investments have underperformed recently when compared to the rest of their peers.

Take, for example, Coca-Cola (KO) - Get Report. As of December 31, 2014, Buffett owned 400 million shares, or approximately 9%, of Coca-Cola for a value of $16.888 billion. Coca-Cola ranked second in Buffett's portfolio in terms of weighting at 15.4%.

And Buffett doesn't just own the stock. He also loves the drink.

"If I eat 2,700 calories a day, a quarter of that is Coca-Cola," he told Fortune in February. "I drink at least five 12-ounce servings. I do it everyday." He added he typically has three Cokes during the day and two at night.

But has the billionaire's devotion to the world-famous soft drink cost him even more money?

Consider the performance of Coca-Cola against its chief rival, PepsiCo (PEP) - Get Report. And for good measure, let's throw in fellow beverage companies Dr Pepper Snapple Group  (DPS) and Molson Coors Brewing  (TAP) - Get Report.

Here's the five-year performance of the four stocks as of December 31, 2014:

And here's how each stock performed in one-year, three-year, and five-year periods as of that date.

One-Year

KO: 2.2%
PEP: 14.01%
DPS: 47.13%
TAP: 32.72%

One-Year w/Dividends

KO: 5.27%
PEP: 17.26%
DPS: 51.18%
TAP: 35.68%

Three-Year

KO: 20.68%
PEP: 42.52%
DPS: 81.56%
TAP: 71.15%

Three-Year w/Dividends

KO: 31.44%
PEP: 55.52%
DPS: 99.1%
TAP: 85.17%

Five-Year

KO: 46.39%
PEP: 54.53%
DPS: 148.72%
TAP: 64.9%

Five-Year w/Dividends

KO: 69.21%
PEP: 78.22%
DPS: 188.35%
TAP: 88.3%

So at Buffett's scale of ownership of Coca-Cola, the difference in stock performance has caused him to missed out in billions of dollars of upside.

Still Want To Know Buffett's Top 25 Stocks? Click Here

If you're considering investing in Coca-Cola or PepsiCo, here is some high-level analysis, compliments of TheStreet's Research Team:

Coca-Cola

Jim Cramer, Portfolio Manager of the Action Alerts PLUS Charitable Trust, commented on Coca-Cola in a recent article on RealMoney.com. Here is what Cramer had to say:

Sometimes you have to ask yourself, "what if?" Sometimes you have to challenge your assumptions and call into question all the conventional orthodoxy out there and it seems like today is one of those days where this putative idol-smashing struck.

I've got five what-ifs that changed the equation today and made people come to their senses as to the fact that perhaps the trends, which can be your friends, have perhaps become too friendly.

First what-if: what if the dollar has indeed stopped going up, or at least isn't going to go as high as the cognoscenti thinks it is?

If you wind the tape back to a week ago before the Fed meeting, we presumed that the dollar was going, in a straight line, to where it would trade one-for-one with the euro. It did get close to it, but when the Fed said last week that rates weren't about to go up, the euro got much stronger. A central tenet of all the big-hedge-fund think out there is that the stronger dollar can wreck the finances of whole countries and cause tremendous pain for all our internationals. Hardly a day goes by without reading about how the big multinationals headquartered here are going to be crushed by a strong dollar. But what if it's not true? What if it turns out that it's not the case? Many of the industrials, the drugs and the techs would be way too cheap, if that's the case.

Consider that IBM  (IBM) - Get Report, maybe the most visible of the multinational techs, has gone up 10-straight points without the company saying or doing anything. That's because the dollar's gotten weaker. I was shocked last week that Coca-Cola, after a major hatchet job by the Wall Street Journal, didn't get hit. Why? Simple. Even as it is hedged against the euro, it isn't against a lot of the other currencies that did better against the dollar.

- Jim Cramer, '5 What-Ifs That Changed the Equation' originally published 3/23/2015 on RealMoney.com.

Want more information like this from Jim Cramer BEFORE your stock moves? Learn more about RealMoney.com now.

Separately, TheStreet Ratings team rates COCA-COLA CO as a Buy with a ratings score of B-. TheStreet Ratings Team has this to say about their recommendation:

"We rate COCA-COLA CO (KO) a BUY. This is driven by several positive factors, which we believe should have a greater impact than any weaknesses, and should give investors a better performance opportunity than most stocks we cover. The company's strengths can be seen in multiple areas, such as its expanding profit margins, reasonable valuation levels and notable return on equity. We feel these strengths outweigh the fact that the company has had sub par growth in net income."

You can view the full analysis from the report here: KO Ratings Report

PepsiCo

Brian Sozzi commented on PepsiCo in a recent post on RealMoney.com. Here is what Sozzi had to say:

Warren Buffett and 3G Capital teaming up again on the Kraft  (KRFT) deal should send two of the biggest food companies into action.

Enter PepsiCo and General Mills  (GIS) - Get Report, two companies with the financial firepower to add to strategic areas of their sizable packaged-food portfolios. For each of these companies, additions to the portfolio won't be made in order to streamline sluggish businesses (little different than the Heinz and Kraft deals) and save money, but instead to unlock new areas of growth. The focus areas of these companies are going to be in organics and what the industry calls "better for you" snacks.

Here are some things execs at each company recently shared with me.

Pepsi: With an activist off its back, I think Pepsi could soon get back to its acquisitive ways. The company has a long history of large, fundamentally transformative acquisitions. It's the type of company that could purchase a Hain Celestial to boost a snack business that has been growing quite nicely.

"We feel like we have the portfolio in a pretty good spot right now," Pepsi CFO Hugh Johnston told me in mid-February. He added, "We'll see what comes along -- we are constantly out there talking to basically everyone."

Pepsi generally allocates about $500 million a year or so to small "tuck-in" types of deals, according to Johnston. That is a figure that could indeed be raised if the right opportunity opens up, and considering the dollar's strength and low-interest-rate environment.

All in all, it's game on, packaged-food companies -- either start buying innovation or Warren Buffett and his besties at 3G Capital are going to purchase and hold them forever.

- Brian Sozzi, 'Who Else Will Go Food Shopping?' originally posted 3/26/2015 on RealMoney.com.

Want more information like this from Brian Sozzi BEFORE your stock moves? Learn more about RealMoney.com now.

Separately, TheStreet Ratings team rates PEPSICO INC as a Buy with a ratings score of A. TheStreet Ratings Team has this to say about their recommendation:

"We rate PEPSICO INC (PEP) a BUY. This is based on the convergence of positive investment measures, which should help this stock outperform the majority of stocks that we rate. The company's strengths can be seen in multiple areas, such as its notable return on equity, good cash flow from operations, expanding profit margins and solid stock price performance. We feel these strengths outweigh the fact that the company has had sub par growth in net income."

You can view the full analysis from the report here: PEP Ratings Report

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