Geron (GERN) Is Today's Perilous Reversal Stock
Editor's Note: Any reference to TheStreet Ratings and its underlying recommendation does not reflect the opinion of TheStreet, Inc. or any of its contributors including Jim Cramer or Stephanie Link.
Trade-Ideas LLC identified
(
) as a "perilous reversal" (up big yesterday but down big today) candidate. In addition to specific proprietary factors, Trade-Ideas identified Geron as such a stock due to the following factors:
- GERN has an average dollar-volume (as measured by average daily share volume multiplied by share price) of $15.9 million.
- GERN has traded 753,202 shares today.
- GERN is down 4.2% today.
- GERN was up 34.5% yesterday.
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More details on GERN:
Geron Corporation, a clinical stage biopharmaceutical company, develops a telomerase inhibitor, imetelstat, to treat hematologic myeloid malignancies. The company was founded in 1990 and is based in Menlo Park, California. Currently there are 2 analysts that rate Geron a buy, no analysts rate it a sell, and 1 rates it a hold.
The average volume for Geron has been 2.7 million shares per day over the past 30 days. Geron has a market cap of $465.3 million and is part of the health care sector and drugs industry. Shares are down 13.5% year-to-date as of the close of trading on Wednesday.
Analysis:
rates Geron as a
. Among the areas we feel are negative, one of the most important has been a generally disappointing historical performance in the stock itself.
Highlights from the ratings report include:
- GERN's stock share price has done very poorly compared to where it was a year ago: Despite any rallies, the net result is that it is down by 31.64%, which is also worse that the performance of the S&P 500 Index. Investors have so far failed to pay much attention to the earnings improvements the company has managed to achieve over the last quarter. Naturally, the overall market trend is bound to be a significant factor. However, in one sense, the stock's sharp decline last year is a positive for future investors, making it cheaper (in proportion to its earnings over the past year) than most other stocks in its industry. But due to other concerns, we feel the stock is still not a good buy right now.
- The company, on the basis of net income growth from the same quarter one year ago, has underperformed when compared to that of the S&P 500 and greatly underperformed compared to the Biotechnology industry average. The net income increased by 3.6% when compared to the same quarter one year prior, going from -$9.28 million to -$8.95 million.
- The revenue fell significantly faster than the industry average of 36.0%. Since the same quarter one year prior, revenues fell by 20.9%. The declining revenue has not hurt the company's bottom line, with increasing earnings per share.
- GERON CORP has improved earnings per share by 14.3% in the most recent quarter compared to the same quarter a year ago. The company has demonstrated a pattern of positive earnings per share growth over the past two years. However, we anticipate underperformance relative to this pattern in the coming year. During the past fiscal year, GERON CORP continued to lose money by earning -$0.24 versus -$0.29 in the prior year. For the next year, the market is expecting a contraction of 16.7% in earnings (-$0.28 versus -$0.24).
- You can view the full Geron Ratings Report.
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