Did Warren Buffett Make a Huge Mistake by Dumping Kraft (KRFT) Stock in 2012, 2013?

Billionaire investor Warren Buffett unloaded his shares of Kraft Foods (KRFT) in late 2012 and early 2013. Was it a mistake?
By Andrew Meola ,

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Heinz and Kraft Foods (KRFT) announced a blockbuster merger on Wednesday morning that would create the fifth-largest food company in the world and the third-largest in North America.

Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) - Get Report and 3G Capital will invest $10 billion in the combined company, which will be called The Kraft Heinz Company.

But let's not forget Buffett's history with Kraft. 

On October 1, 2012, Kraft Foods completed the spin-off of Kraft Foods Group and changed its name to Mondelez International  (MDLZ) - Get Report. Buffett promptly responded by unloading his shares in the company more quickly than the time it takes to melt some Velveeta cheese.

In the fourth quarter 2012, the first for Kraft and Mondelez as independent companies, the billionaire investor slashed his holdings in the Kraft Foods Group to 1.7 million shares from the 10 million he received in the spinoff, according to an SEC filing by Berkshire Hathaway. He also cut his stake in Mondelez by 58% to 12.8 million shares.

But Buffett wasn't done. In an SEC filing in August 2013, Buffett revealed that he had further reduced his stake in Kraft to 192,666 shares, an 88% drop from his holdings as of March 31, 2013. He also slashed his holdings in Mondelez by 91.8% to 578,000 shares.

So it's clear: Buffett had no use for either Kraft or Mondelez post-spinoff, but did he make the right call? Should he have maintained his position in Kraft, or even bought more, rather than slashing his holdings so quickly?

Look at the chart below that shows how Kraft's stock has performed from October 1, 2012 (the date of the spinoff) until the close of trading yesterday.

KRFT data by YCharts

The stock rose nearly 40% during that time period, which means Buffett missed out on more than $200 million by cutting his position the way he did. Factoring in today's jump of more than 30%, that figure climbs to more than $400 million.

But now, the Oracle of Omaha is involved with Kraft yet again and has seemingly changed his tune regarding the company's business.

"I am delighted to play a part in bringing these two winning companies and their iconic brands together," Buffett said in a statement. "This is my kind of transaction, uniting two world-class organizations and delivering shareholder value. I'm excited by the opportunities for what this new combined organization will achieve."

If only he had held such optimism about Kraft at the time of the spinoff.

Want To Know Buffett's Top 25 Stocks? Click Here

If you're looking to decide whether or not to invest in Kraft Foods, here is some high-level analysis, compliments of TheStreet's Research team:

Jim Cramer, Portfolio Manager of the Action Alerts PLUS charitable trust, commented on Kraft in an article on RealMoney.com. Here is what Cramer had to say:

Like everyone else who didn't own Kraft last night, I kicked myself for missing it. Let's see; three-and-a-half percent yield, down for the year, household brands, lower input costs across the board in the second half of the year.

How could you not like that? Especially considering that they make Cheese Whiz, the favored ingredient of cheese steaks everywhere, which I am told, by the way, actually has a real smidgen of cheese in it?

Yet, therein lays the rub. The fact that I could make a joke about whether Cheese Whiz has any real cheese in it is why I haven't liked this stock for anything but a takeover play in the years since it was created. The fact that before I wrote this I Googled to see if Cheese Whiz actually had any real cheese in it and found an actual and I am sure well-worn entry posing that exact question -- the answer is it has some but not as much as it used to -- tell you more about why I didn't own it than anything else.

Kraft, you see, is the antithesis of some of the most major trends influencing all of business worldwide. Whether it be Cheese Whiz or Oscar Mayer or Kraft salad dressing or Macaroni and Cheese or Velveeta or Lunchables, this company is definitively on the wrong side of food history, perhaps even on a worse side than its putative acquirer, Heinz.

- Jim Cramer, 'Why I Didn't Own Kraft' originally published 3/25/2015 on RealMoney.com.

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