Did Warren Buffett Blow It With This Stock Pick?
NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Billionaire Warren Buffett is admired by investors far and wide for his investing strategy and business acumen.
Buffett built Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) - Get Report from a textile company into a corporation with a market cap of more than $350 billion. Berkshire shares averaged a 19.7% compounded annual gain in per share book value from 1965-2013 with Buffett as chairman of the company.
His investing strategy preaches that discipline, patience, and value consistently outperform the market, and he tries to acquire great companies that trade at a discount to their intrinsic value. Once he gets a stake, Buffett seeks to hold onto it for a long time. He will only invest in businesses that he understands, and always insists on a margin of safety.
But Buffett is far from perfect, and some of his investments have underperformed recently when compared to the rest of their peers.
Take American Express (AXP) - Get Report. Buffett has been a supporter of the stock for quite some time, and his stake in the financial services company has remained static for years. But the stock has been horrendous as of late. American Express is down 11.1% year-to-date, 7% in the last six months, and 9.58% in the last year.
It's not just that the stock is struggling. It's also severely underperforming compared to peers Visa (V) - Get Report and MasterCard (MA) - Get Report. MasterCard is up 4.54% year-to-date, 18.26% in the last six months, and 18.53% in the last year.
Visa has performed even better, with gains of 3% year-to-date, 26.15% in the last six months, and 20.84% in the last year.
At Buffett's scale of American Express share ownership, the difference in stock performance has caused him to miss out on billions of dollars of upside.
Still, Jim Cramer, Portfolio Manager of the Action Alerts PLUS charitable trust, says to keep this in perspective.
"Look, if I had gotten in earlier to American Express like Mr. Buffett did, this AXP hit wouldn't be so oppressive," Cramer says. "All I can say is that if you criticize Buffett, remember he is still the greatest investor of all time and I would kill to have his numbers."
Take a look at the one-year performance of the three financial services stocks from December 31, 2013 to December 31, 2014:
Here's the three-year performance from December 30, 2011 from December 31, 2014:
Here's the five-year chart from December 31, 2009 to December 31, 2014:
And, here's a month-by-month performance breakdown for the three stocks from January 2010 to December 2014:
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Despite American Express' poor performance relative to its peers in the last few years, it was the third-largest holding in Buffett's portfolio as of December 31, 2014 with a 12.9% weighting. He owned 151,611,000 shares of the stock at that time for a value of $14.106 billion.
MasterCard does not appear in Buffett's top 25 holdings, but Visa slots in at No. 22 with a 0.6% weighting.
Berkshire Hathaway was the largest investor in American Express as of February 12. On that day, Berkshire lost approximately $780 million when American Express' stock closed down more than 6% after the company lost its exclusivity deal with Costco (COST) - Get Report.
Here is a breakdown of Buffett's holdings in each of the three financial services companies as of December 31, 2014:
AXP
No. of Shares: 151,610,700
Portfolio Weighting: 12.9%
Value: $14.1 billion
Percentage of Company Owned: 14.8%
V
No. of Shares: 10,037,160
Portfolio Weighting:0.6%
Value:$657.9 million
Percentage of Company Owned: 0.1%
MA
No. of Shares: 5,399,756
Portfolio Weighting: 0.43%
Value: $465.2 million
Percentage of Company Owned: 0.47%
Is it possible that Buffett could actually buy American Express one day? He's certainly set a precedent for such an action. In 1996, Berkshire acquired the rest of Geico it did not already own to turn the insurance company into a Berkshre subsidiary.
Buffett also bought NetJets in 1998 after he owned the stock for three years.
So Buffett's unwavering support of American Express has still yielded some gains for him, but he could have made significantly more money with Visa or MasterCard during the last few years.
But who knows? The Oracle of Omaha may decide to absorb American Express sooner rather than later.
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If you're looking to decide between these three stocks, here is some high-level analysis, compliments of TheStreet's Research team:
American Express:
American Express is a part of Jim Cramer's Action Alerts PLUS Charitable Trust Portfolio. Here is what Jim Cramer, Portfolio Manager and Jack Mohr, Director of Research - Action Alerts PLUS had to say about the stock in a recent alert:
We're raising cash this month in order to distribute the Trust's proceeds to the charitable trustee for disbursement, an annual and joyous task that fulfills the mission of one of the original reasons we established ActionAlertsPLUS.com, besides the desire to show you how a money manager works with a total open hand...
...American Express is another position that we have been increasingly cautious on. We see few material new-term catalysts and believe the bull story behind this has dampened in light of several recent disappointing developments, including the loss of the Costco and JetBlue contracts. We much prefer our MasterCard position over American Express and do not have the patience to wait for a long-term turnaround.
- Jim Cramer and Jack Mohr. 'This Is Why We Do This' originally published 3/10/2015 on ActionAlertsPLUS.com.
Separately, TheStreet Ratings team rates AMERICAN EXPRESS CO as a Buy with a ratings score of B+. TheStreet Ratings Team has this to say about their recommendation:
"We rate AMERICAN EXPRESS CO (AXP) a BUY. This is driven by a number of strengths, which we believe should have a greater impact than any weaknesses, and should give investors a better performance opportunity than most stocks we cover. The company's strengths can be seen in multiple areas, such as its notable return on equity, good cash flow from operations, increase in net income, growth in earnings per share and reasonable valuation levels. We feel these strengths outweigh the fact that the company has had lackluster performance in the stock itself."
You can view the full analysis from the report here: AXP Ratings Report
Visa:
Sham Gad commented on Visa in a recent post on RealMoney.com. Here's what he had to say:
...The best gains are almost always going to occur when an asset is bought during point of maximum pessimism. While there may be a 0.01% chance that a single stock will return a 100-fold return, the market has returned over 200% in the last six years. By simply investing in your backyard during point of maximum pessimism, the last six years have been bountiful.
Apple, perhaps the most wildly-followed stock, is up over 700% in the last six years. Visa and MasterCard are both up astronomically during this time. One didn't need to find a needle in a haystack investment like Dana or Select Comfort to do incredibly well.
Doing well in investing doesn't require doing a lot of things right. The key is to understand the nature of markets. When times are at their worst, the market serves its best opportunities.
- Sham Gad, 'Lessons on 10,000% Gains in 5 Years' originally published 3/17/2015 on RealMoney.com.
Separately, TheStreet Ratings team rates VISA INC as a Buy with a ratings score of A. TheStreet Ratings Team has this to say about their recommendation:
"We rate VISA INC (V) a BUY. This is based on the convergence of positive investment measures, which should help this stock outperform the majority of stocks that we rate. The company's strengths can be seen in multiple areas, such as its revenue growth, largely solid financial position with reasonable debt levels by most measures, growth in earnings per share, increase in net income and expanding profit margins. Although the company may harbor some minor weaknesses, we feel they are unlikely to have a significant impact on results."
You can view the full analysis from the report here: V Ratings Report
MasterCard:
MasterCard is a core holding of Jim Cramer's Action Alerts PLUS Charitable Trust Portfolio. During the most recent weekly roundup, this is what Jim Cramer, Portfolio Manager and Jack Mohr, Director of Research - Action Alerts PLUS had to say about the stock:
MasterCard (MA:NYSE, $89.82, 1,100 shares; 3.46%; Sector: Financials): The shares traded higher this week after the company announced a 12.8 million share offering last week, which we believe was a block trade from a Class B shareholder (Class B shares are primarily owned by affiliate banks). As of its last report (on Feb. 5), there were 37.1 million Class B shares outstanding, or roughly 3% of total shares. We do not think there is anything worth reading into the sale, as Class B shares have been converted and sold into the public consistently over the years (though blocks, admittedly, have been less common). In fact, Class B equity ownership has declined to just over 3% as of last month from 15% in 2009. Overall, we continue to be excited about the company’s prospects, its 4Q was strong, and it sits neatly within powerful long-term payment themes (notably the conversion from cash to plastic). In our view, the world is MasterCard’s oyster. We reiterate our $95 target.
- Jim Cramer and Jack Mohr, 'Weekly Roundup' originally published 3/20/15 on ActionAlertsPLUS.com.
Separately, TheStreet Ratings team rates MASTERCARD INC as a Buy with a ratings score of B+. TheStreet Ratings Team has this to say about their recommendation:
"We rate MASTERCARD INC (MA) a BUY. This is driven by a number of strengths, which we believe should have a greater impact than any weaknesses, and should give investors a better performance opportunity than most stocks we cover. The company's strengths can be seen in multiple areas, such as its revenue growth, largely solid financial position with reasonable debt levels by most measures, impressive record of earnings per share growth, compelling growth in net income and expanding profit margins. We feel these strengths outweigh the fact that the company is trading at a premium valuation based on our review of its current price compared to such things as earnings and book value."
You can view the full analysis from the report here: MA Ratings Report
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