AK Steel (AKS) Stock Slumps Today on Weak First Quarter Guidance

Shares of AK Steel (AKS) fell in pre-market trading today after the company provided guidance for its first quarter 2015 financial results that was lower than analysts' estimates.
By Sebastian Silva ,

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Shares of AK Steel Holding Corp. (AKS) - Get Report fell 5.48% to $3.97 in pre-market trading today after the company provided guidance for its first quarter 2015 financial results that was lower than analysts' estimates.

AK Steel said that it expects to report a net loss of 23 cents to 28 cents per diluted share versus the average of 18 analysts' estimates that had expected earnings of 1 cent, according to data compiled by Reuters.

The company said its results of operations for the first quarter have been "significantly and negatively impacted by lower than expected carbon steel spot market shipments and prices due to unexpectedly high levels of what AK Steel believes are unfairly traded imports."

For the first quarter of 2015, AK Steel expects shipments of approximately 1,730,000 tons, a decrease of approximately 14% from the fourth quarter of 2014.

The company's shipments of carbon and stainless steels to the automotive market are expected to remain "strong" due to market demand.

However, excess global steelmaking capacity and continued challenging global economic conditions have resulted in a substantial increase in the level of steel imports into the U.S.

More recently, the strengthening U.S. dollar also has contributed to an increase in steel imports. Imports of flat rolled carbon steel products increased by nearly 60% in 2014, and have averaged more than one million tons per month in January and February of 2015.

These conditions have negatively affected the company's shipments to the carbon spot market in the first quarter, as well as the selling price of the company's steel to that market.

West Chester, OH-based AK Steel Holding is an integrated producer of flat-rolled carbon, stainless and electrical steels and tubular products through its wholly owned subsidiary, AK Steel Corp.. Its operations consist of 10 steelmaking and finishing plants and tubular production facilities located in Indiana, Kentucky, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Separately, TheStreet Ratings team rates AK STEEL HOLDING CORP as a Sell with a ratings score of D+. TheStreet Ratings Team has this to say about their recommendation:

"We rate AK STEEL HOLDING CORP (AKS) a SELL. This is driven by multiple weaknesses, which we believe should have a greater impact than any strengths, and could make it more difficult for investors to achieve positive results compared to most of the stocks we cover. The company's weaknesses can be seen in multiple areas, such as its deteriorating net income, poor profit margins, weak operating cash flow, generally disappointing historical performance in the stock itself and feeble growth in its earnings per share."

Highlights from the analysis by TheStreet Ratings Team goes as follows:

  • The company, on the basis of change in net income from the same quarter one year ago, has significantly underperformed against the S&P 500 and did not exceed that of the Metals & Mining industry. The net income has significantly decreased by 61.6% when compared to the same quarter one year ago, falling from $35.20 million to $13.50 million.
  • The gross profit margin for AK STEEL HOLDING CORP is currently extremely low, coming in at 10.07%. It has decreased from the same quarter the previous year. Along with this, the net profit margin of 0.67% trails that of the industry average.
  • Net operating cash flow has decreased to $57.80 million or 49.07% when compared to the same quarter last year. In conjunction, when comparing current results to the industry average, AK STEEL HOLDING CORP has marginally lower results.
  • Despite any intermediate fluctuations, we have only bad news to report on this stock's performance over the last year: it has tumbled by 35.07%, worse than the S&P 500's performance. Consistent with the plunge in the stock price, the company's earnings per share are down 73.07% compared to the year-earlier quarter. Naturally, the overall market trend is bound to be a significant factor. However, in one sense, the stock's sharp decline last year is a positive for future investors, making it cheaper (in proportion to its earnings over the past year) than most other stocks in its industry. But due to other concerns, we feel the stock is still not a good buy right now.
  • AK STEEL HOLDING CORP has experienced a steep decline in earnings per share in the most recent quarter in comparison to its performance from the same quarter a year ago. The company has reported a trend of declining earnings per share over the past year. However, the consensus estimate suggests that this trend should reverse in the coming year. During the past fiscal year, AK STEEL HOLDING CORP reported poor results of -$0.74 versus -$0.34 in the prior year. This year, the market expects an improvement in earnings ($0.33 versus -$0.74).
  • You can view the full analysis from the report here: AKS Ratings Report

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