Against the Spread: 2010 NFL Picks: Week 13
BOSTON (TheStreet) -- It's Week 13 in the NFL season, which I hope isn't an unlucky number for my picks against the spread. Dan Marino wore the number 13, and we all know how successful he was winning a championship.
Overall, my record with against-the-spread picks is 30-29 with one tie. Last week, I lost on incorrect picks of the Saints, Raiders and Giants. With 30 correct picks out of 60 so far this season, my success rate is 50%. If the push from Week 11 is factored as a win, I'm just shy of 52%. If you are a professional bettor, you typically need to win 53% of your bets in order to profit. That's based on the idea that you have to wager 110 units in order to win 100 units.
Sam Bradford (quarterback, St. Louis Rams) |
Sadly, I've fallen below that magical 53% threshold with these column picks, although I have a 55.3% winning record in TheStreet's Yahoo! Pick 'Em league. This week, I'm looking to capitalize on a trend where road underdogs have a 52.2% chance of covering.
Road dogs have a record of 60-51 with four tie games this season. Some teams are obviously better than others when they're getting points while traveling; Tampa Bay is 5-0 as road underdogs with one push, while the Jets and the Rams have a 4-1 record on the road as underdogs.
Surprisingly, the
St. Louis Rams
, led by rookie superstar quarterback Sam Bradford (pictured above) are actually the best team to pick against the spread, with an 8-3 record overall. But when you consider that Bradford has 11 touchdown passes and only one interception in the last six games, the Rams' record against the spread isn't as shocking.
Other teams have surprisingly good against-the-spread records, including the
Miami Dolphins
,
Detroit Lions
,
Jacksonville Jaguars
, and
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
. Each of these teams has seven wins against the spread.
Meanwhile, teams that usually see a lot of public money are barely above the .500 mark. These include the
New England Patriots
,
Indianapolis Colts
and
Pittsburgh Steelers
. The
Dallas Cowboys
, one of the most popular teams in sports, have covered the point spread only 36.4% of the time this season. Super Bowl champions the
New Orleans Saints
, another popular team with the betting public, have only a 40.9% record against the spread this year.
For Week 13, that means I'm paying close attention to a handful of road underdogs and how they've performed against the spread this season in hopes of finding some value. Road underdogs this week include Houston, San Francisco, Buffalo, Cleveland, Denver, Jacksonville, Washington, Oakland, Dallas, Carolina, Pittsburgh, and the New York Jets.
Without further ado, it's on to my picks for the slate of games in Week 13. Once again, these are for entertainment purposes only. And as always, I've enlisted the help of
Paul Bessire. His Prediction Machine is a quantitative way to break down NFL games as it simulates each contest 50,000 times to come up with a pick against the spread.
I've also collected commentary on each game from
Bookmaker.com CEO Mickey Richardson
. His analysis focuses on the spread movement by his oddsmakers and a look at where the public and professional money is moving on each game. These are necessary tools for bettors who are on the hunt for inefficiencies and value based on betting trends.
Read on for the first game preview, the Sunday meeting between the
Buffalo Bills
and the
Minnesota Vikings
.
Buffalo Bills at Minnesota Vikings (-5.5)
I selected this game for the column simply based on the theme of road underdogs having a strong record against the spread. Of all the underdogs playing away from home this week, the Bills are my top pick for an upset victory.
Sure, the Jets and Steelers seem like they could win their respective games outright. And the Broncos and Raiders have a good chance to beat outsized lines. But the Bills have played close games the last few weeks and have tremendous good fortune in that they play a flailing Vikings team.
Yes, we all saw Brett Favre
gut out another "heroic" performance
last week (speaking of which, can sportswriters and talking heads please refrain from using the term "heroic" to describe sports?) in a comeback win against the Redskins. Minnesota's offense did not turn the ball over, a first for the Vikings this season. The defense did well too, holding Washington to only 216 total yards. Amazingly, the Redskins rushed for a miniscule 29 yards in that game. But the truth is that Minnesota has a turnover margin of -12 even with last week's performance, and the team has only covered the spread three times this season.
The Bills, meanwhile, have been absolutely terrific against the spread over the last several weeks. With quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, the Bills have covered the spread five times in the last six games. Buffalo was a tough-luck straight-up loser last week, nearly pulling off an overtime victory against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Wide receiver Steve Johnson (pictured above) has been in the headlines this past week after he dropped an end zone pass that would have sealed an unlikely victory for the Bills. Johnson has been under a microscope this week after he questioned God on Twitter for his overtime miscue. That headline has overshadowed one key fact about the Bills: They're a much better team than their record indicates, even if the defense has had difficulty stopping opposing running backs.
Bessire's Take
: "Even in losses, Buffalo has played Miami, Baltimore, Kansas City, Chicago and Pittsburgh all within five points. Those teams are a combined 36-18. The Minnesota Vikings are 4-7 and for good reason as they have turned the ball over 25 times and struggle both in the passing game and defending the pass. Brett Favre is having one of the worst seasons of his career, which should be expected at his age and with the injury issues the Vikings have had to deal with. Now, Adrian Peterson is banged up as the Bills are playing their best football. Expect a very close game."
Bookmaker.com Take
: "This week, Bookmaker.com opened Minny a 7-point favorite over the Bills. The smart money believes the Bills will bounce back after last week's bad beat. The current line is -5.5. Bookmaker believes it will close -4.5, showing little faith in the public following Favre and the Vikings."
The Pick: Bills +5.5
. Buffalo is a perfect 3-0 as road underdogs when playing on turf. But spread trends alone don't account for this pick. Minnesota stinks when playing against teams with explosive offenses. The Bills may not be the Patriots or Packers, but the team averages 21 points per game and nearly 350 total yards on offense with Fitzpatrick as quarterback. The Vikings, on the other hand, score an average of 17 points per game. If the Vikings are to cover the 6-point spread, they'll need upwards of 30 points, potentially. It's hard to see that happening, especially if the Bills can contain Adrian Peterson.
Houston Texans at Philadelphia Eagles (-8)
The Texans are among a handful of teams I've had trouble figuring out. Like the Dolphins and Jaguars, among others, the Texans look terrible one week and terrific the next. After having Week 7 off, the Texans were hammered with four straight losses to the Colts, Chargers, Jaguars and Jets. Last week, though, the Houston defense allowed only 162 total yards in a 20-0 shutout against the Tennessee Titans.
Also on the positive side, Houston wide receiver Andre Johnson did not receive a one-game suspension following his on-the-field brawl with Titans cornerback Cortland Finnegan. That lopsided victory may sound terrific until one remembers that Rusty Smith was the starting quarterback for the Titans. No wonder the Texans defense looked so great.
Make no mistake about it: Houston's defense won't do as well against the Philadelphia Eagles and, more specifically, Michael Vick. The Eagles lost last week to arguably a better team in the Chicago Bears, but Vick is still much better than rookie stand-in Rusty Smith, who threw four interceptions last week against Houston.
Bessire's Take
: "The numbers love the Eagles and not the Texans. It's been that way all season, especially when Michael Vick has been in the lineup for Philadelphia. Houston has one of the worst defenses that we have ever seen, let alone in the league this year. Against essentially a league-average schedule, the Texans give up over eight yards-per-pass and 285 passing yards a game. Against a tough schedule that has included the Chicago Bears (first in the NFL in pass defense), Green Bay (fifth) and the New York Giants (eighth), Michael Vick is averaging 8.3 yards-per-pass and has 13 touchdowns to just one interception. That formula equates to our highest projected fantasy output from any player this season as well as a blowout/cover by the Eagles, who put up 33 points against Houston on average."
Bookmaker.com Take
: "The Thursday night NFL match-up seems to be all Philly so far with Bookmaker.com seeing a two-to-one head count ratio on the Eagles. Philly opened a 7-point favorite and jumped quickly to 8. Value shoppers should see the oddsmaker's selling some -9 with a closing price at -8.5."
The Pick: Eagles -8
. The key to this game will be Philly's defense. In games the Eagles have won by 9 points or more, the defense forces at least one turnover. Last week, for instance, the Eagles defense forced no turnovers against the Bears and the team ended up losing. The good news for the Eagles is that Houston averages one turnover per game. The only worry I have is that, since 2008, the Eagles under Andy Reid are 4-7 against the spread in games against AFC teams. But everything points to an Eagles blowout win and easy cover, even if the point spread has jumped as high as it has.
Cleveland Browns at Miami Dolphins (-4.5)
In my preparation for these games, which begins on Monday morning, I was completely sold on the Browns last week. Then Jake Delhomme was announced as the starter. It was then I knew my pick of Browns -9 wasn't going to win.
Monday rolled around and I sat at my desk at work, set to pick the Browns again as they travel on the road as 4.5-point underdogs to the Dolphins. I have to pick out my five games on Monday and send out requests to PredictionMachine.com and Bookmaker.com so I can get their analysis in time. The Browns looked like a decent pick.
But a lot can happen between Monday and Thursday morning. I had to rewrite these last three paragraphs as I'm beginning to worry that the Browns, with Delhomme and without Colt McCoy again, are going to implode against what appears to be a better Dolphins team. It's not even Sunday morning and I'm starting to regret my pick.
Bessire's Take
: "I never thought I would say this, especially not this season, but Cleveland clearly is not the same team without Colt McCoy at quarterback. To the same degree -- if not greater -- Miami is a completely different team with Chad Henne at quarterback as opposed to any of the other options. This Sunday then, the quarterback matchup clearly favors the Dolphins at home. Miami has played the second toughest schedule of any team in the NFL and is still 6-5. The Dolphins are slightly-to-significantly better than Cleveland across the board. Plus, they are at home. Even though Miami has not played as well at home as many would expect, that's still advantage and it definitely beats facing the Browns in Cleveland in December."
Bookmaker.com Take
: "This matchup has seen nothing but two-way action. Miami opened up a 5.5-point favorite and dropped down to 4.5. Don't be fooled by Bookmaker.com's line movement. Writing two-way action back and forth from 5.5 to 4.5 is the best way for the book to juice out the player."
The Pick: Browns (+4.5)
. As I've written in previous columns, my wife is from Cleveland and chastises me every time I pick the Brownies, claiming that they are going to ruin my picks. But I can't shake how good the running game is with Peyton Hillis. Miami has been all over the map. They get blanked by Chicago and follow that up by throttling the Raiders. They beat the Packers and then drop a winnable game to the Steelers. Until they snap that win-loss pattern, I'm not buying into them. That said, I know I'm going to want to vomit every time Delhomme takes three steps back in the pocket.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-3)
Oh, sweet revenge. This game between the Steelers and Ravens is one of two games where I think "revenge" becomes a factor in picking a winner against the spread.
The Steelers lost at home to the Ravens in Week 4 of this season by 3 points, despite two turnovers by the Baltimore offense. Keep in mind, though, that Pittsburgh was relying on Charlie Batch to play quarterback, as Ben Roethlisberger (pictured above) was still serving out his suspension. But even with Big Ben under center, it likely won't make a huge difference in the scoring. Excluding playoffs, the last five games between the Steelers and Ravens have been settled by 4 points or less.
So what does that mean, exactly? It means when you pick this game, you need to pick who you think will win outright. That's considerably tough to do. The Ravens have been a very consistent team, losing tough games to the Falcons and Patriots. The Steelers have had some bumps in the road since Roethlisberger's return, including games against the Patriots and the Saints.
To me, after the Week 4 loss, the Steelers have to be bloodthirsty.
Bessire's Take
: "We like the upset here. Both the Steelers and Ravens are very good, but the Steelers are better -- and better enough to overcome Baltimore's home-field advantage. The Ravens have really had a tough time running the ball and defending the run this season. Pittsburgh is the best in the league
by far
defending the run, so don't look for much out of Ray Rice as the Steelers force the Ravens into a one-dimensional team. Offensively, Pittsburgh will have to rely on its running game. Not only is that the weaker part of the Ravens offense, but Ben Roethlisberger is ailing. Assuming he can bounce back to near full strength after last week's 36-rush performance, Rashard Mendenhall may ultimately look like the best player on the field in carrying his team to the upset (straight-up) victory."
Bookmaker.com Take
: "This Sunday night matchup will no doubt bring in the heavy volume from the public. However, the pro punter happens to agree with the Bookmaker.com risk managers setting the line, Baltimore -3. There will be little movement in the spread and the number should stay steady all the way to close."
The Pick: Steelers +3
. Every way I've looked at this game, I have the Ravens losing by 5 points. Anything can happen, obviously, but the Steelers have to know that they need this critical victory against their division opponent if they hope to make the playoffs. And given how much James Harrison has been fined by the NFL, he'll probably be angry and ready to hit some more guys this weekend.
New York Jets at New England Patriots (-3)
Speaking of revenge...
I'm not going to beat around the bush with this game introduction. The Patriots are 9-2 and the Jets are 9-2. The Jets hold the lead in the AFC East thanks to a Week 2 beating they dealt to the Patriots. Don't think Bill Belichick has forgotten that.
This is nothing new to the Patriots. Let's look back to 2009, when the Pats lost to the Jets in Week 2 in New Jersey before exacting revenge in Week 11. The Jets and Pats also split their two matchups in 2008. It's the nature of this rivalry.
Bessire's Take
: "Against a defense as great as well-rounded as the Jets have become, the New England Patriots can't just roll up and down the field like they have in many games this season in a shootout. Furthermore, despite being 9-2, New England has only covered a 3.5-point line in six games - all against teams notably worse than the Jets. The Jets, on the other hand, have a great matchup against the Patriots defense. While New England's pass and run offenses rank sixth and 13th respectively in our strength-of-schedule-adjusted efficiency metrics, the Jets pass and run defense both rank second in the NFL. That was definitely evident when these teams met earlier in the season and the Patriots scored a season-low 14 points, even with Randy Moss on the roster and making one of the greatest TD catches we've ever seen."
Bookmaker.com Take
: "The Monday Night matchup couldn't get any better and Bookmaker.com expects this to be one of the highest volume games of the year. The Pat's opened -3 with an overwhelming majority of the public on the favorite. Bookmaker is stubbornly sticking to the magic number -3 but will go to -3.5 occasionally to push the hedging bettors on the dog to balance the risk."
The Pick: Patriots -3
. I know, I know. The public loves the Patriots. And New England has been a losing pick against the spread over the last few years. That said, the Patriots stunk in Week 2 against the Jets. They're playing much better as of late, while the Jets have been extremely lucky in pulling out wins against Denver, Houston, Cleveland and Detroit. I like the Patriots giving 3 points. I'm nervous, though, if you can't secure that spread and it rises to 3.5 points.
-- Written by Robert Holmes in Boston
.
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