'Fast Money' Recap: Oil Will Remain 'Challenged' and Decline Further

The trading panel discussed the falling price of oil, the strong dollar and what the Federal Reserve will do next.
By Bret Kenwell ,

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Oil was in focus on Friday. The commodity slid 4.4%, closing at $44.99 per barrel, roughly 1% above its 52-week lows. 

According to Tom Kloza, co-founder of OPIS, the correction in oil isn't finished and prices will go lower, he said on CNBC's "Fast Money" show. Over the next five months, oil will be "very challenged" and could decline to as low as $30 per barrel. 

The strong U.S. dollar not only puts pressure on oil prices, but also hinders demand in emerging markets. Now that winter is fading and summer is still too far away, there's little demand drivers in the intermediate term. However, for long-term investors, this huge drop has presented a great buying opportunity for the next five years, Kloza added. 

Oil volatility remains high, but Guy Adami, managing director of stockmonster.com, believes oil prices are headed lower. He likes refinery stocks, specifically Tesoro Corp. (TSO)

Tim Seymour, managing partner of Triogem Asset Management, agreed. He likes Total S.A. (TOT) - Get Report and integrated oil stocks including Exxon Mobil (XOM) - Get Report.

The oil market is likely to remain challenged amid slowing demand, said Brian Kelly, founder of Brian Kelly Capital. The number of speculators short-selling the euro has hit its highest level since 2012, before the euro went on a large rally. Could the same be happening now? He believes the euro could rally and the dollar could falter in the coming weeks. 

The incredible strength of the U.S. dollar and lack of inflation likely has the Federal Reserve wondering if it can justify a rate hike in June, Seymour said. Ultimately, Adami said, bond yields are likely headed lower from current levels, as the economy appears to be in a deflationary environment, Adami said. Kelly agreed. 

Steve Grasso, director of institutional sales at Stuart Frankel, said he is sticking with the trends, expecting the euro and oil to continue falling and the rally to keep going in the U.S. dollar. While these assets can pause or pullback for a day or two, doesn't mean the trend isn't still intact, Grasso reasoned. 

He also believes the S&P 500 can ultimately pull back to 1,907, representing a 10% correction. However, the first level of support will likely come in to play near 2,000, around the index's 200-day moving average. Seymour expects the 200-day moving average to fail as support and foresees the S&P 500 declining to 1,900.

For their final trades, Adami is a buyer of Tesoro and Grasso is buying NXP Semiconductor (NXPI) - Get Report. Kelly said to sell the iShares High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) - Get Report and Seymour is buying the iShares MSCI Italy Capped ETF (EWI) - Get Report.

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