Widening Chasm Between Stock Prices and Real Economy: Best of Kass
NEW YORK (Real Money) -- Doug Kass of Seabreeze Partners is known for his accurate stock market calls and keen insights into the economy, which he shares with RealMoney Pro readers in his daily trading diary.
This past week, Kass said the gulf between stock prices and corporate profits is widening, indicating that market is overdue for a correction, but central bank liquidity is supporting it.
The Widening Chasm Between Stock Prices and the Real Economy
Originally published on Mar. 13 at 7:05 a.m. EST
A bull market is like sex. It feels the best right before it ends. -- Warren Buffett
If I had to force myself to reduce my market concerns into one theme/chart, here it is:
Source: Zero Hedge
This chart illustrates the widening chasm between financial asset prices (measured by the S&P 500 Index) and the real economy (measured by forward corporate profits).
This is the essence of the pessimistic market view.
I got a fever, and the only prescription is more cowbell. -- Christopher Walken, Saturday Night Live ("Cowbell)"
Of course, the liquidity provided by the world's central bankers (and its ramifications like historically high corporate share buybacks) has been an essential stock market offset to the deteriorating earnings picture and disappointing progress of the real economy.
More and more cowbell has elevated price-to-earnings multiples, despite 2015 likely being the fourth-consecutive year in which global and domestic real GDP has missed (by a wide degree) relative to consensus expectations.
More indications of the role of liquidity and its impact on stocks has been seen in the last week. Specifically, Friday's hot labor data (pointing to a more immediate hike in the federal funds rate) was the proximate cause for a deep market dive on that day and on the Tuesday that followed.
When weaker economic data (in the form of retail sales) were released yesterday and the tracking estimates for 1Q 2015 were reduced (pointing to a possible delay in the rise in the federal funds rate), stocks roared higher on Thursday.
Bottom Line
But as we look at 2015-16, it seems to me that aggregate profits must grow into valuations in order to justify current stock price levels, as the expansion in P/Es in the face of subpar economic and profit growth seems extreme relative to the corresponding fundamentals. Profits, not growing valuations, must now do the heavy lifting. -- Kass Diary, "Finding Fault in My Market View"
Were it not for the unprecedented global easing, I would be substantially short. But, for now, in a free-for-all of central banking easing (which has contributed to plethora of negative-yielding sovereign debt) there continues to be limited natural price discovery in the markets (particularly in the face of deterioration in the real economy) and I am forced to maintain a relatively market neutral position.
That said, for the reasons mentioned in "Has the Market Climaxed?" remain concerns to this observer.
A market whose foundation and celebrity are based on global easing is an unsound market and its pricing (of numerous asset classes) is artificial.
Tick-tock, tick-tock.
Booyah, Jimmy!
Originally published on Mar. 12 at 3:53 p.m. EST
Hey, I'm Cramer, welcome to "Mad Money," welcome to Cramerica, people want to make friends [at this point, Cramer adds an extra, original statement], I just want to make you money, because my job is not just to entertain you, but to educate , so call me at 1-800-743-CNBC." -- "Mad Money's" Opening (Every Night)
I am outta here early as I have to prepare questions for three separate research meetings Friday morning.
Have I mentioned that "the market has no memory from day to day?"
These days it's the last program standing that dictates the day's trading -- with the dominance on price momentum based HFT coupled with the rising role of exchange traded funds.
So, don't look too deeply at the message of the markets from day to day.
Perhaps now some can better understand my opportunistic trading tactical approach to the markets discussed in "Playing the Wiggles."
Thanks for reading my diary. I hope it was value added.
Enjoy your evening and don't forget to watch Mad Money's tenth anniversary Thursday night.
Ten years is a long time in the broadcasting business . This is especially true in business news, as many/most have failed as Jim has succeeded.
My adulation and pure love for Jim "El Capitan" Cramer runs very deep. He has been my collaborator, my defender and advocate. He has provided me with the guidance of a shining star on Real Money Pro and on TheStreet. He has been generous with his time and kind (and constructive) in his criticism.
I have written numerous columns in my Diary about Jimmy and his impact on me and so many other investors and traders. In 2003, I wrote "On Being Jim Cramer," in which my admiration for Jim was first disclosed:
"I am not a suck up. Indeed, in the past, Jim and I have disagreed on a host of subjects regarding the markets and individual stocks. We have frequently debated each other.
Back a couple of years ago, our disagreements were ugly. Then we got to know each other and a mutual respect for our differences emerged.
We certainly disagree on the market and economic outlook today. But after our disagreements - when each of us cogitates over the other's view - we learn from each other. (I know this is sappy, but it is true.) Our relationship is symbiotic. On occasion, we will alter our views as a result of the polemic.
Just ask Jim when he stopped selling Toll Brothers (TOL) - Get Report at my suggestion in April, 2003. And Jim was influential in my decision to cover some of my AOL Time Warner (TWX) short two months ago.
We have agreed on many other issues, like on the duct-tape bottom!
Because of his extraordinary and documented investment successes, Jim's views are important - and to me, will always require scrutiny.
I would much rather consider and dissect Jim's views on the basis of his real time investment successes than consider the views of any other investment strategist, who has not been in the trenches like Jim and has not achieved his accomplishments and material wealth.
Jim is a public persona with a personality that is unique and at times defies description. He iw, however , no more idiosyncratic than any other successful hedge fund managers I know. He is just a bit more visible, as his views are articulated with frequency over many platforms. That is unusual in our field.
As such, criticism against him is rampant. And the temptation for his critics to selectively bring up his failures is understandable but wrong.
It is also wrong to consider Jim's bullish market outlook as a contrarian indicator.
Look at the Investor's Intelligence figures on Merrill Lynch's internal put/call ratio, but don't use Jim as a contrary tell.
If you do, it might be dangerous to your financial health."
March 14, 2005 was the premier episode of "Mad Money" on CNBC. The show replaced Dylan Ratigan's "Bullseye."
Jim typically has numerous segments on "Mad Money." My favorites are "Game Plan," "Lightning Round," "Sell Block," "Am I Diversified?" "The Week That Was," "Pimpin' All Over the World" and "Under the Radar."
Jimmy religiously answers viewer e-mails and is constantly in contact with his fans on the show.
He is entertaining. He has told me that being so keeps investors interested in the game.
Above all, the most value-added parts of "Mad Money," at least to me, are the research-oriented company management interviews. For someone who has done this live, it takes a lot of work to prepare even a few hard-hitting and stimulative questions.
Regina Gilgan has been the long-time executive producer who runs the smooth-running show with a bunch of very capable associates. There is so much work that goes into a show like "Mad Money" and Regina does it so well and so seamlessly.
Jimmy has had me on the show several times. It was a real treat being a guest.
Please join me this morning in congratulating Jim "El Capitan" Cramer with another milestone: his 10th anniversary of "Mad Money." Watch Jim ring the NYSE bell this morning and tune in to "Mad Money" all week, which is being graced by some amazing guests and will contain a lot of value-added investment information. If last night's "Mad Money" is a template (with exceptional interviews with Starbucks' (SBUX) - Get ReportSchultz and PepsiCo's (PEP) - Get ReportNooyi) this will be must-see TV over the balance of the week.
Nobody does it better. Jimmy. But as his good friends know so well, Jim is much more than an iconic figure on "Mad Money." He is an exceptional friend, father and son.
And that is what really counts to him.
Jimmy, I love you -- congratulations on 10 great years and ... Booyah!
Your Pal,
Dougie
BOOYAH SKIDADDY!!!!
Must Read:Why Doug Kass Is Bullish on Twitter, and Why Jim Cramer Agrees
At the time of publication, Kass and/or his funds were short the SPY, although holdings can change at any time.
Doug Kass is the president of Seabreeze Partners Management Inc. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.