Ulta Salon's Shares Still Have Upside After Friday's Jump
NEW YORK (Real Money) -- Shares of Ulta Salon (ULTA) - Get Report are higher Friday, following earnings that beat already high Wall Street expectations. And shares will keep climbing.
On Friday afternoon, the stock was up 4.5% to $151.39.
We added Ulta to our Trifecta Stocks portfolio -- using quantitative, fundamental and technical analysis -- in late January. We were looking to add a company that could capitalize on increased consumer-discretionary spending, and yet had its own attractive growth story.
Technically, the stock looked good, rising on higher volume, which indicates strong institutional support. The Quant Ratings grade on the stock was (and remains) A-.
We bought around $135 and set a price target of $154 ahead of this latest earnings report. Taking Friday's surge into account, our new price target is $170.
Ulta has plenty of room to run in terms of opening new stores (still way under-developed). Its U.S. focus eliminates currency noise and noise of geopolitics and macroeconomics, and it should start to reap the benefits of more spending after the impact of lower gas prices.
Ulta posted fourth-quarter sales of $1.05 billion, up 20.7% year over year and ahead of analysts' average estimate of $1.02 billion. Same-store sales rose 11.1% -- the strongest gain since 2011 -- on top of a 9.2% increase a year ago, and beat analysts' estimates of 7.5%.
Quarterly earnings, including a one-time tax benefit of 2 cents a share, came in at $1.35 a share, ahead of analysts' average estimate of $1.28.
Management guided for first-quarter revenue of $833 million to $847 million, compared with analysts' estimate of $832 million, and EPS of 88 cents to 93 cents a share vs. views for 91 cents. For fiscal 2015, management is targeting same-store sales of between 6% and 8%, with total sales growing in the mid-teens. Management expects ecommerce sales to be in the 40% range and for the company to deliver EPS growth of 15% to 17%, or $4.55 to $4.63, ahead of analysts' average estimate of $4.53.
Management reiterated its intention to open 100 new stores in 2015. The company was quite positive on how its two small-format test stores performed, and it is in the planning stages of scaling the build-out of a couple of hundred additional stores.
Management commented that the West Coast port slowdown has not materially affected business.
In the fourth quarter, customer traffic increased 7.7% and average ticket increased 3.4% on better mix and less discounting. Retail store comps grew 8.8%, driven by 5.7% traffic growth and 3.1% average ticket growth. The strength in comps was led by prestige, mass color cosmetics and salon services.
E-commerce sales grew 55% and added 230 basis points to the comp growth. E-commerce still represents a small 4.6% of sales (for fiscal 2014), and management is focused on growing that business.
Gross margin at 33.4% was a touch weaker than expected (33.8%) and came in 44 basis points lower than last year as the company saw increased usage of its ULTAmate rewards loyalty program, which now boasts 15 million active members. Lower-margin e-commerce sales also weighed on margins.
On the balance sheet, the company ended fiscal 2014 with $539 million in cash and equivalents and no debt.
Management continued to execute its share-repurchase program and acquired $10 million worth of shares in the quarter. The company also announced a $100 million expansion to its share-repurchase program, leaving $360 million in place.
In keeping with TSC's editorial policy, Bryan Ashenberg doesn't own or short individual stocks. He also doesn't invest in hedge funds or other private investment partnerships. Trifecta Stocks is long ULTA.