How to Trade HP Inc. After It Rejects Xerox's Takeover Offer

HP Inc. is down slightly after rejecting Xerox's latest takeover offer. Here's how to trade the stock now.
By Bret Kenwell ,

After a near-record gain in the stock market on Wednesday, equities again were under heavy pressure on Thursday. However, HP Inc  (HPQ) - Get Report was only down slightly on the day. 

The move came after the company swatted back yet another takeover bid from Xerox  (XRX) - Get Report. According to management, the bid “undervalues” HP Inc.

Xerox offered $18.40 in cash and 0.149 shares of Xerox for each share of HP Inc. Xerox closed at $33.69 on Wednesday. Using that price, it values HP Inc. at roughly $23.42 per share.

It’s been a strange M&A engagement between the two, as Xerox continues to hound HP as an acquisition, despite the latter commanding a $31.3 billion market cap vs. a $6.9 billion market cap for Xerox.

Given the news, it makes HP a reasonable pick for Real Money’s Stock of the Day.

Trading HP Stock

Weekly chart of HP Inc stock.

Chart courtesy of Stockcharts.com

In November, HP went on a blistering rally, as you can see on the weekly chart above. However, the stock was unable to close above the 50-week moving average and downtrend resistance (blue line).

Luckily for bulls, the stock was able to reclaim these marks in the following week, before running higher and hitting resistance between $22.50 and $23 a few months later. Shares are now struggling to reclaim the 10-week moving average, but are above the 50-week moving average.

So what is the game plan for traders?

Below the 10-week moving average keeps the 50-week in play. Should HP stock decline toward the latter, investors may consider it a buying opportunity. After all, HP did not decline to this level despite last week’s brutal decline in the broader market, and given that the 50-week moving average was support throughout the fourth quarter.

Should it fail as support, it puts the 200-week moving average and the backside of prior downtrend resistance (blue line) on the table.

If HP is able to reclaim the 10-week moving average, it puts $22.50 to $23 on the table. Above that and $25 is possible.

Here’s the bottom line: Volatility is running high in the market and M&A further complicates matters. In a way, that nagging Xerox bid is helping to keep a floor in HP stock. Should Xerox remove itself from the M&A discussion, it will likely deal a blow to HP stock and possibly drop it through support.

For now, keep an eye on the 10-week moving average on the upside and 50-week moving average on the downside. 

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