Turning to Apple as Stock Market Hits the Panic Button

Apple is down on Monday but hasn't taken out its February low. This action is constructive, but will it last and can the stock be a leader again?
By Bret Kenwell ,

Nearly every equity-related asset is being massacred on Monday but here is a bit of good news: Apple  (AAPL) - Get Report isn’t making new lows on the day - at least, so far.

Shares are down about 6% to about $272. That’s up from the open and the day’s low, at $263.75 and $263, respectively. But more importantly, Apple didn’t take out the $256.37 low from Feb. 28.

Not that it makes the tech giant a screaming buy or means that the bottom is in, but many other stock investments - including the S&P 500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq - have taken out the February lows as investors hit the panic button.

Apple’s performance is significant. Not only does the stock still command a market cap in excess of $1 trillion, but it serves as an important asset from a psychological standpoint. Further, Apple was one of the first companies to warn about the coronavirus’s impact to its business. So it failing to make new lows on the decline is noteworthy.

Let’s look at what the charts say now.

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Trading Apple Stock

Daily chart of Apple stock. 

Chart courtesy of Stockcharts.com

The fact that Apple stock hasn’t taken out its recent low is a good sign, but that doesn’t mean we’re out of the woods yet. In fact, very far from it. On the plus side though, we have some points of reference on the chart.

As chaotic and disruptive as the price action has been, there’s actually some order here. Allow me to quickly point out where we saw a “character change” in Apple, because it may just help keep you out of trouble in the next bout of volatility.

We first noted the waning momentum in Apple in February, as the stock failed to make new highs along with the broader market. In other words, it went from market leader to a market laggard, although it did so quietly. The real change in tone came when Apple lost the $305 level and 50-day moving average though. Those marks have gone from support to resistance, a bearish technical development that still gave traders plenty of time to exit north of $300.

Turning our attention to the present, Apple shares are now back below the 100-day moving average. If it can reclaim this mark, it’s a positive development for bulls and puts $300 and the 50-day moving average back on the table.

If Apple can make that type of move, it may just give investors confidence in other mega-cap tech stocks and possibly the market as a whole.

Should Apple fail to reclaim the 100-day moving average, investors have to beware of a possible retest of the February lows, near $256. Below $256 puts the 200-day moving average on the table, followed by a potential decline down toward $236.50.

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