'Star Trek Beyond' to Beam Up a Box Office Win
Three new wide releases hit theaters this weekend, and they look to be a box office mixed bag. Paramount's "Star Trek Beyond" debuts as the third film in the rebooted franchise, and though reviews have been stellar for the film, it may struggle to reach the heights of its predecessors. Fox is releasing "Ice Age: Collision Course" into an already-crowded family market, and the film may struggle to find an audience with "The Secret Life of Pets" still doing huge business. And finally, Warner Bros. will release its second horror movie of the summer, "Lights Out," which should continue the trend of spooky movies scoring solid box office returns. Overall, the top twelve should generate $170 million in revenue, up 9% from last weekend and up 17% from the same frame last year.
"Star Trek Beyond" will end the five-week streak of animated films topping the box office; the question is, how big will it be? The last two "Trek" movies have both seen solid opening weekend returns, with the first grossing $75.2 million in 2009 and the second grossing $70.2 million in 2013. "Star Trek Beyond," like the other two movies, has stellar reviews and a strong cast going for it. And given the fact that the marketplace hasn't seen a big action movie in a few weeks, since "The Legend of Tarzan," moviegoers may be ready to see some VFX-driven thrills.
However, "Beyond" is still likely to fall short of its predecessors at the box office, for a number of reasons. First off, the response to "Star Trek Into Darkness," the predecessor to "Beyond", was decidedly mixed among Trekkies, which could eliminate some of the good will that this franchise has benefitted from thus far. It is also very possible that some moviegoers will save their money for two hotly-anticipated actioners that are releasing in the next few weeks, "Jason Bourne" and "Suicide Squad." "Bourne" will also be a headache for "Beyond" overseas, as the two movies will go head-to-head in many markets.
Finally, in a summer where sequels have been missing more than they've been hitting, "Beyond" could suffer from franchise fatigue. The trailers, while edited nicely to get the viewer's blood pumping, does not suggest that there is anything must-see about this movie. In fact, Paramount just released news that the fourth film will see Captain Kirk finally meet his father, in what seems to be an attempt to create excitement around the franchise, because "Beyond" has fallen short. While that might be good news for the fourth movie's box office returns, it is unlikely to have much of an effect on the opening weekend of "Beyond." Expect the sci-fi film to open between $55 and $58 million this weekend--not a disaster for Paramount, but not a huge success either, given the film's pricey $185 million budget.
"The Secret Life of Pets" should fall to second place this weekend, although expect it to continue drawing in a large family audience. The animated film has seen strong daily holds this week, and while "Ice Age: Collision Course" will certainly provide competition, that film is likely to skew younger than "Pets" and is not likely to be a big box office player anyway. Expect "Pets" to fall between 40 and 45% for the frame, for a third weekend of $28 to $30 million.
"Ice Age: Collision Course" will probably find itself in the third spot this weekend, a far cry from the No. 1 openings that three of its four predecessors have enjoyed. This franchise from Fox has been a remarkably consistent performer, but franchise fatigue has to set in eventually, and "Collision Course" is releasing into a market for family films that may be close to saturated. "Finding Dory" and "The Secret Life of Pets" have together made about $670 million in the past five weeks, and other movies, like "The BFG" and "Ghostbusters," have also pulled in a notable (albeit much smaller) family audience.
On top of that, reviews for "Collision Course" have been awful, with the movie sitting at a paltry 14% on Rotten Tomatoes. That may deter parents from buying tickets, especially when reviews for "The Secret Life of Pets" and "Finding Dory" have been comparatively glowing. Expect "Collision Course" to gross $22 to $25 million this weekend, a weak result for any animated film, let alone one from a multi-billion-dollar franchise.
Fox won't be too worried about this weekend's weak returns, however. The "Ice Age" films have always been more of a foreign play. The last film, for example, grossed 81.6% of its $877.2 million worldwide total from overseas territories. "Collision Course" has already released in a handful of markets and grossed a strong $134.9 million. Given that the overseas gross should easily pass $500 million, and that this installment only cost $105 million to make, Fox should be just fine in the long run.
In fourth place, "Ghostbusters" may see a steep drop from its opening weekend. Word-of-mouth has been mixed for the movie, and there was a fair amount of pre-release anticipation that drove up box office numbers last weekend. Unfortunately, it doesn't look as though this film is going to be able to emulate the holding power of director Paul Feig and star Melissa McCarthy's other films, which all legged out to box office totals that were considerably higher than their opening weekends. Expect "Ghostbusters" to fall around 55% to between $20 and $22 million.
Rounding out the top five should be another spooky movie, "Lights Out" from Warner Bros. This has been a very successful summer for horror films, with "The Conjuring 2," "The Shallows" and "The Purge: Election Year" all opening above industry expectations (although we were onthemoney here at TheStreet). Industry expectations are around $13 to $15 million, but as we've seen before, this horror film should go a tad higher. It has a legitimately chilling trailer that plays on the very simple (and relatable) concept of darkness. Additionally, James Wan's name carries a lot of weight with moviegoers (he is behind both the "Insidious" and "Conjuring" franchises), and so his heavily-advertised role as executive producer could drive up business for the movie. Expect "Lights Out" to score a stellar $16 to $18 million this weekend.
A weekend recap will be posted on Monday with studio estimates.