American Air Shares Decline Despite Credit Rating Upgrade

American Airlines, unlike most competitors, does not hedge fuel, so it benefits more when fuel prices fall and is hurt more when they rise.
By Ted Reed ,

Updated from 6:45 a.m. EST.

NEW YORK ( TheStreet) -- American (AAL) - Get Report had an up and down week, getting both a share price downgrade and a credit rating upgrade, part of a year that so far has not gone so well for the carrier's shareholders.

For the week ended Feb. 27, American shares declined 7%. Shares closed Friday at $47.90.

On Monday morning, about 30 minutes after the opening bell, shares were trading up 60 cents to $48.50.

Year-to-date as of Friday's close, American shares were down 11%. Among the eight major airlines, only Virgin America (VA) was down more, with shares down 19%. Delta (DAL) - Get Report was down 9% and United (UAL) - Get Report was down 3%. The domestically oriented carriers were all up, led by JetBlue (JBLU) - Get Report, up 8%, and Alaska (ALK) - Get Report, up 7%. Southwest (LUV) - Get Report was up 2%.

The bad news for American came early last Tuesday, as Cowen & Co. analyst Helane Becker downgraded shares to market perform from outperform, saying she sees unhealthy trends in passenger revenue per available seat mile, or PRASM.

"American will likely underperform its peers in terms of PRASM growth as a result of pricing pressure in Dallas and in Latin America," she wrote. "We continue to like the story longer term but believe there is downside risk to consensus estimates in both 2015 and 2016."

In the first quarter, Becker noted, American is guiding toward a PRASM decline between 2% and 4%, while overall industry PRASM should be plus or minus 1%.

"The reason for the underperformance is a result of Southwest's promotional fares in the Dallas market and capacity/currency issues within Latin America," she wrote, adding that American has lowered fares to compete with Southwest and that she expects continuing overcapacity in Latin America to pressure American profitability.

Additionally, like other carriers, American is negatively impacted by rising fuel prices. However, because it does not hedge fuel, American has been the biggest beneficiary of declining fuel prices, and would be hurt more by rising fuel prices.

Becker lowered her price target to $55 from $66. She estimates earnings of 54 cents a share in the current quarter and $5.70 for the full year, substantially below consensus. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters estimate $1.78 for the quarter and $10.46 for the year. "We are below the consensus in 2015, likely a function of a higher jet fuel assumption," Becker wrote.

While Becker was downgrading, Moody's was upgrading.

Moody's said Tuesday that it had raised its rating outlook on American to positive from stable and upgraded four of the company's enhanced equipment trust certificates.

The positive outlook reflects Moody's expectation for improving operating profit and free cash flow in 2015 due to the sharp drop in the fuel costs, the firm said.

That improvement is balanced against "the potential for fuel prices to retrace their recent decline, the uncertainty of how much of the aircraft order book will be funded with new debt and risk in the integration of the operating systems of American Airlines and US Airways," said Jonathan Root, Moody's senior credit officer, in a prepared statement.

Root indicated he would be displeased if American used debt "to fund about 50% or more of the about $5 billion of annual aircraft capital expenditures." He would prefer that existing debt be paid off.

On Thursday, American said it would place a private offering of $500 million in unsecured senior notes due 2020. It said the money would be used for "general corporate purposes."

In a note issued Thursday afternoon, Gimme Credit analyst Vicki Bryan wrote that "American Airlines is tapping the high yield market today with a quickly shopped $500 million offering of 5-year senior notes.

"With this $500 million borrowing today cash and total liquidity is restored to a more comfortable range with little noticeable impact to our projected yearend leverage of 2x -- a nice improvement versus 3.8x at the end of 2014," wrote Bryan.

Meanwhile, Jim Cramer said Tuesday that investors should not rush to sell the stock despite Becker's downgrade.

Shares are "so unbelievably cheap," he said, noting that the stock has been "resting" as oil prices stabilize.

On the company's January earnings call, CEO Doug Parker declared, "We produced a total shareholder return of 113% in 2014, and had we been in the S&P 500, that would have been the second best amongst all the S&P 500, behind by the way only Southwest Airlines, our competitor," Parker said.

"But this is not our first year of really strong returns," he said. "Our predecessor ticker, LCC, was up nearly 90% in 2013 and over 170% in 2012. So on a three-year basis, we produced a total shareholder return of over 1,000%. And that is by far the best of the S&P 500."

-- Written by Ted Reed in Charlotte, N.C.

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This article is commentary by an independent contributor. At the time of publication, the author held no positions in the stocks mentioned.

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