10 New Netflix Originals that Could Reignite Subscriber Growth
Bloomberg News
Editors' pick: Originally published July 28.
As Apple (AAPL) - Get Report and Amazon (AMZN) - Get Report make more original movies and serials, can Netflix (NFLX) - Get Report maintain its place atop the media streaming market?
Shares of the popular streaming platform fell 14% on July 19 following an earnings report that revealed the company had missed international subscriber growth targets by nearly half a million and domestic subscriber growth by about 400,000. Although shares have somewhat recovered, Netflix is beginning to show signs of weakness that few would have predicted during its meteoric rise since going public in 2002.
The problem could be that Netflix's user base of about 83 million is nearing saturation. While investors fear that nearly all the U.S. households that would consider subscribing to Netflix have already done so, others argue that its content is lacking and that it's no longer the only go-to source for compelling entertainment.
"Netflix isn't providing sufficient content to satisfy long-time subscribers, and the alternatives are providing some measure of new content that is attractive," Wedbush Securities media analyst Michael Pachter, who rates the shares "underperform," said in an e-mail.
In recent years, CEO Reed Hastings has invested in making films but so far that strategy has yet to hit a payday. As any of the major Hollywood studios knows too well, movie-making is a risky business. The company's first film, Beasts of No Nation, missed at the Oscars even though it was supposed to be a large awards-season play. Netflix's four-picture deal with Adam Sandler has produced two films that were both critically panned, failing to entice more subscribers.
And, though not as aggressively publicized as Beasts, Netflix has released three movies over the past month: Paul Rudd in The Fundamentals of Caring, anIndian comedy Brahman Naman and the mind-bending thriller Rebirth. These films have generated close to zero buzz, and are also unlikely to raise the number of Netflix subscribers.
"If a tree falls in the forest and no one hears it..." says ComScore (SCOR) - Get Report box office analyst Paul Dergarabedian. "You can't just count on being flypaper waiting for the viewers to come to you. The most important thing is that you market these projects in a way that inspires people to join Netflix."
Indeed, if Netflix hopes to remain the top dog among streaming operators, it needs to make consumers aware that its programming is must-see. Luckily, Netflix has many projects in the pipeline that, if leveraged correctly, will affirm Netflix's reputation as the best provider of original premium content. This mix of original movies and series will be essential in firming up Netflix's subscriber base and expanding it at a quicker pace.
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This musical drama series follows the rise of hip-hop in New York City through the eyes of six kids from the South Bronx. The trailer looks pretty exciting with wonderfully retro costumes and a talented cast of up-and-comers including Jaden Smith. The series will be Netflix's first to feature a predominantly African-American cast.
Netflix needs a good showing from The Get Down, reportedly one of the most expensive television shows ever made -- roughly $120 million. The production was troubled with numerous shutdowns during shooting and costs that kept ballooning. However, Netflix has maintained faith in the project, doling out money for a large dance company and the rights to classic disco hits during production.
At the helm of the series is Baz Luhrmann, who has been able to make such dated subjects as Romeo & Juliet and The Great Gatsby hits among millennial audiences. It's worth noting that the budget of Gatsby also ballooned to past $100 million before becoming a huge hit for Warner Bros. If Luhrmann can inject the same verve and style into The Get Down that he brought to his blockbuster take on Gatsby, Netflix could have another must-see series on its hands.
This is the third Marvel series to premiere on Netflix following Daredevil and Jessica Jones. Both of those series were critically praised successes for the streaming company and Luke Cage will hope to follow in their footsteps. The show follows a crime-fighting ex-con with super strength, and the showrunner has described it as "The Wire of Marvel Television." If Luke Cage can come close to the quality of The Wire, which is widely regarded as one of the best television shows ever, it's likely to be a hit.
Netflix is banking on Luke Cage and its follow up Marvel show, Iron Fist, to be well received. That's because after all four Marvel shows have aired, the titular heroes will team up for a miniseries called The Defenders. Essentially Netflix's version of The Avengers, the show could become a catalyst for subscriber growth. No one wants to miss out on superhero team-ups, as huge box office successes for Batman v. Superman and Captain America: Civil War have taught us. A teaser for the miniseries just premiered at Comic-Con and was well-received.
Okay, so a British historical drama series doesn't exactly scream "huge hit." However, if this show can live up to the pedigree of its scribe (Peter Morgan, writer of The Queen) and director (Stephan Daldry, who helmed The Reader), The Crown could be a huge Emmys contender come next fall.
The show follows the ascendancy to the throne of Queen Elizabeth II, and her relationship with her husband, Prince Philip. The company is surely banking on fans of the soon-to-be-ending Downton Abbey checking this one out, as well as the majority of Netflix's U.K. subscribership. As a lot of Netflix's shows skew younger, The Crown should provide proof that the company has original content for all demographics.
The original Gilmore Girls TV series was a huge hit among millennial audiences during its initial run on The WB. Now, 10 years after the series ended, most of the cast is reuniting for this Netflix revival. The reunited cast will include Melissa McCarthy, now a huge star who could help drive interest in the miniseries.
Not coincidentally, Netflix made all of the original Gilmore Girls seasons available on its streaming site on July 1. It's a smart move -- nostalgic fans will catch up with the show, and new fans might even climb aboard the bandwagon. By the time the revival series is released, which is reportedly going to be some time at the end of this year, demand will certainly be high. Netflix might even see a healthy subscriber boost from fans without the streaming service who don't want to miss out.
This film, set in the Afghanistan war and led by Brad Pitt, is sure to be a buzzy one for Netflix. War movies starring Pitt have a history of being critically and commercially successful: Inglourious Basterds grossed $321.5 million worldwide on top of garnering eight Oscar nominations, and Fury grossed $211.8 million and won strong reviews from critics. War Machine is based off of a successful David Michod novel and is said to be darkly comedic in tone, which is often a bit of a tough sell when it comes to grisly films. However, Inglourious Basterds was also a dark comedy in many ways, and still managed to be a hit. Netflix is surely hoping that War Machine will be able to thrill audiences in the same way, given that the company spent $60 million producing the project.
Netflix is likely to want to win Oscar attention with this film. The company was snubbed by the Academy this past awards season when Idris Elba's searing performance from Beasts of No Nation was shut out of the nominations. While the suspected racism that fueled the #OscarsSoWhite phenomenon certainly could have been a factor in Elba's snub, it is also possible that many Academy members simply didn't want to throw their support behind a movie without a proper theatrical release. The lack of Academy recognition for Beasts was undoubtedly a factor in the company losing out on distribution rights for the buzzy historical drama Birth of a Nation at Sundance, despite being the highest bidder. In order to gain trust among prestigious filmmakers and executives, Netflix has to leverage one of its movies to awards season success, and if War Machine delivers the goods, it could be Netflix's ticket to the Oscars.
When the film version of Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events hit theaters back in 2004 it performed rather badly, grossing $209 million worldwide against a $140 million budget. That came as a surprise to many who expected the popularity of the book series (which has sold 65 million copies), combined with the box office power of Jim Carrey, to generate a better box-office showing. In retrospect, the film was ultimately hurt by an ending and overall tone that was unfaithful to the book series and resulted in mixed word-of-mouth.
However, there are many reasons to think the Netflix series will avoid a similar fate. Thirteen episodes are being produced which correlates with the thirteen installments in the book series. This suggests Netflix will be faithful to Lemony Snicket's novels and will hope to emulate the critical praise that those books earned. The director of the series, Barry Sonnenfeld, also directed the similarly-themed (and highly successful) Addams Family movies as well as all installments of the Men in Black franchise. Add in an appealing star on top of that -- Neil Patrick Harris will play the iconic Count Olaf -- and it seems as though Netflix will have a must-see series for millennial audiences when Unfortunate Events is released.
So Star Trek: Discovery isn't technically a Netflix show. CBS will air this new television iteration of Star Trek beginning in January and people in North America will actually only be able to access the show online through CBS All Access.
However, for people outside the United States, Star Trek: Discovery might feel like a Netflix series. That's because Netflix acquired the rights to stream each new episode of the CBS show 24 hours after its original airing in 188 countries outside of the United States and Canada. That means the majority of the worldwide audience will be tuning into the show through Netflix, a huge boon for the streaming service.
It may also mean that Netflix will see a much-needed uptick in international subscribers. Only 1.5 million were added this past quarter, much less than the 3.5 million that had been expected by many analysts going into the second quarter. Although Star Trek isn't a well-known entity overseas like it is in the U.S., Netflix has already taken action to change that.
The streaming company also acquired the rights to stream all previous Star Trek series worldwide as part of the Discovery deal, which should help to make Captain Kirk and Spock household names across the globe. All the past series will reportedly be available by the end of 2016, which will convince Trekkies in the U.S. to join the streaming service and drive up anticipation for Discovery in foreign territories.
This show will mark a return of the prodigal son of sorts for Netflix as David Fincher, who helped kickstart the company's original programming with House of Cards, is set to serve as executive producer on this new series. Mindhunter is based on John Douglas' remembrances of his time in the FBI's serial crime unit where he pursued killers such as Charles Manson and Ted Bundy. Jonathan Groff of Frozen and Hamilton fame will play the television version of Douglas.
Mindhunter seems like it will be a police procedural in the same vein as CSI and Criminal Minds, which are both wildly popular shows. With the involvement of Fincher, Mindhunter is sure to attract viewers who would normally pooh-pooh sensationalist police dramas. Fincher and Netflix are clearly betting they can produce a high-quality program with the lasting appeal of House of Cards.
This series has a loaded cast that includes Jeff Daniels, Jack O'Connell and Downton Abbey's Michelle Dockery and should be one of the splashier series to premiere next year for Netflix. It's been described as a Western miniseries set in the 1880s, and will center on a feud between Daniels and O'Connell's characters. Godless is already being compared to HBO's Deadwood, which ran for three widely-praised seasons and developed a cult following.
It remains to be seen whether or not Godless will be able to match the quality of Deadwood, but Steven Soderbergh's executive producing credit on the series inspires confidence. Soderbergh's previous series, The Knick, was very well received, and his HBO film Behind the Candelabra further proves that the director knows what he is doing when it comes to quality television. His name in the credits alone should convince viewers to check out this new series.
Netflix agreed to pay $90 million for this project back in March, a whopping number that shocked the industry. It's not hard to see why Netflix was willing to dole out so much, however. Bright will star Will Smith, one of the world's biggest stars, and is to be directed by David Ayer, whose Suicide Squad is expected to be a huge hit in a couple of weeks (thanks, in part, to Smith's involvement). The film will also star Joel Edgerton, an Australian actor who should become better known to audiences as he hits the awards circuit this fall for his much-lauded role in the drama Loving.
The plot of Bright has not officially been announced, but it is reportedly an R-rated cop thriller that will include fantastical elements, a la Men in Black. The film is meant to be the first in a franchise, which would really put Netflix in serious competition with the big Hollywood studios. Indeed, Bright could be the movie that puts the popularity of Netflix original films on par with that of Netflix original series -- which would be a game-changer for the company.