JPMorgan a Top Trade; Twitter to Rise on Periscope: Best of Kass
NEW YORK (Real Money) -- Doug Kass of Seabreeze Partners is known for his accurate stock market calls and keen insights into the economy, which he shares with RealMoney Pro readers in his daily trading diary.
This past week, Kass said the environment is favorable for banks, especially JPMorgan, and Twitter's new Periscope app makes it one of his "Best Ideas."
My Miscellaneous Morning Musings
Originally published on Mar. 27 at 7:52 a.m. EST
- I expressed in "Staying Real...And Honest" the basis for my short-term wiggles in the market. I would continue to short or sell rallies and I expect the January lows to be tested, not immediately, but rather in a jagged zigzag manner that provides many opportunities on the long and short side. In "Welcome to the Two-Way Market," I described a changing character and complexion of the U.S. stock market.
- I moved from very short to slightly net long and then back to market neutral Thursday, covering all of my ETF shorts when futures were down 18 handles yesterday and then going modestly net long before selling some trades out profitably. I am now extremely light on a gross exposure basis.
- I introduced JPMorgan (JPM) - Get Report as my Trade of the Week (at $59.04) on Thursday. (Previously, on Monday, Lincoln National (LNC) - Get Report was the Trade of the Week on the short side. (I suggested covering that trade, down $2 from cost basis). My rationale on JPM (and the banks) reflects the cocktail of relatively low valuations, rising interest rates, improving credit demand (and commercial and industrial loans) and a more normalized slope of the yield curve.
- I introduced Twitter's (TWTR) - Get Report Periscope app to subs yesterday (the New York Times highlighted Periscope this morning) which could be a "game changer" for Twitter. Last night, courtesy of the Daily Mail's Jon Steinberg, I watched Neil Diamond's live concert from South Florida. Truly amazing -- you will be reading a lot more about the Periscope app in the weeks ahead as we enter the "selfie culture." Twitter's video opportunity coupled with evidence of renewed strength in advertising forms the basis for my inclusion of the stock on my Best Ideas list.
- There was a lot of action in futures overnight. While currently down 3 handles, S&P 500futures were up 9 at the peak early this morning.
This has been a low-volume week with lower stock prices. As I wrote Monday morning, in "Buy Volatility," I suspect volatility will rule the day in the months ahead and a period of lower highs and lower lows might be ahead. I would emphasize very few are looking for a meaningful (over 10%) decline in stock prices. So be prepared for downside market surprises. That said, I repeat that I have completed work on a number of new long ideas that in a market correction will likely return to buy levels. Be patient; I am.
My Miscellaneous Morning Musings
Originally published on Mar. 26 at 2:22 p.m. EST
The market's character is changing.
I suspect a market without memory from day to day will be with us for a while, as numerous moving parts to the investment mosaic are questioned by investors, which is something I explored in my opener.
The market is likely to feel more like a casino, with the last-standing program influencing the market action most afternoons. I also suspect, as I pointed out earlier this week, that volatility is rising.
Most of you should be reducing exposure on strength and spending more time sitting on "one's hands." Many (those who are facile) should consider opportunistic trading strategies. Others (who are quick) should buy the dips and sell the rips. That decision is mostly a function of your personal time frames and risk profiles.
Mr. Market is losing the predictability that has characterized it for the past six years.
Welcome to the two-way market.
At the time of publication, Kass and/or his funds were long Twitter and JPMorgan, although holdings can change at any time.
Doug Kass is the president of Seabreeze Partners Management Inc. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.