Jim Cramer: Watch Microsoft for Clues About This Rally

Jim Cramer prefers rallies based on financials or transports. But this time, while the financials are huge and the transports are confirming, it's a rally based on tech.
By Jim Cramer ,

NEW YORK (Real Money) -- You break the spell here. You get the head of steam going into the Federal Reserve meeting that will matter a great deal. I prefer rallies based on the financials or the transports. The financials are huge, the transports are confirming.

But this is a rally based on Apple (AAPL) - Get Report and Facebook (FB) - Get Report and it has a convincing air. IT's funny. Both companies' stocks have been punk. Apple's been hanging around here since the watch. Facebook hit this level not that long ago and just stalled. They are part of tech we haven't had to worry about: non-personal computer, non-telco, which has also stalled.

So maybe it has legs. The test case isn't Twitter (TWTR) - Get Report, which has been locked in the range, and which the trust has bought enough of. It isn't Alibaba (BABA) - Get Report, although it helps that people are thinking this one has been softened.

It's Microsoft (MSFT) - Get Report. This is a company where the numbers are too high. If it can rally, that means we are starting to see some stability that has been absent since the Intel (INTC) - Get Report preannouncement. Watch that stock. It could tell you if we can run into the Fed meeting.

The other stock to watch is Carrizo (CRZO) - Get Report. Oil's had a turn. This is the big secondary offering of the day and it's a real good company. But it hasn't been able to hold the $45.50 point.

I believe if this level holds -- and it has some possibilities since it held on the intraday Jan. 28 decline -- Carrizo is the stock to buy because it's building a war chest. That is just what you would want if you were an opportunist.

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At the time of publication, Jim Cramer's charitable trust Action Alerts PLUS held positions in Apple, Facebook, Microsoft and Twitter.

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