Jim Cramer: These Six Negatives Put a Chill in the Market

We need some fear. Then we'll be ready to take out the highs.
By Jim Cramer ,

NEW YORK (Real Money) -- Did someone say "enough with the positives, now let's hear from the negatives?" Did you hear the command to take off the rose-colored glasses and take a jaundiced eye to those things that seem to be going right?

That's what's happening and I have to admit that it's a little daunting.

It all starts with retail. We all know that retail's been the leadership group in this market, because of a combination of good job growth and change back from those two twenties when you fill up at the pump.

But what if something goes awry with the thesis? What if people stopped shopping even if they didn't want to?

Don't laugh. I was staring out the window the other night at Bar San Miguel, my small-plate Mexican restaurant in Carroll Gardens, Brooklyn, mesmerized. Mesmerized by the fact that no one was walking by. We're next to a busy subway stop and people are always walking by, looking in and often coming in.

But no one was walking by. No one. Like some sci-fi movie where all human life has been obliterated. Not even any walking dead. By 10 o'clock I would have bought a "Walker" a Corona had he staggered in, although soon after, of course, I would have killed him with the shards of a bottle of Avion.

Instead of lamenting the lack of traffic, I should have said, "Hmmm, I can't be alone in this moment, the whole country's frozen over and it's making us all huddle by the television binging when we should be spending." Maybe Netflix (NFLX) - Get Report and Amazon (AMZN) - Get Report are the only real winners.

So, the first negative: It's just too darned cold and people aren't venturing to the mall or the local strip to do any buying. It's discouraging and you have to wonder when we see February numbers if they aren't affected by the "Bar San Miguel" effect.

Second negative? Did you see those car sales Tuesday? Gee, other than General Motors (GM) - Get Report we didn't see much to write home about. Cars aren't like clothes or toys or sodas or cans of soup.

Cars have to be moved. They have to be sold. Judging by the stock action, those cars will be moved, but they will be moved at a discount. And should we worry now that giant auto lender Wells Fargo (WFC) - Get Report has pulled back from the sub-prime market, that there won't be financing for those marginal shoppers who want to buy a new car?

It's a not-so-hot thesis that played out all day Tuesday. And you can tell it bothered people because even GM didn't go up much.

Oh, you think it's too cold out to buy a car?

How about a house? It's not like homes are selling like hotcakes, especially on a day like today, which happens to be National Pancake Day. I think they might be selling like quinoa on National Quinoa Day. Now there's a day for the Millennials! Really, I've been watching these stocks dribble down after some pretty good quarters and I think they are anticipating that February was just an awful month for the homebuilders. That can ripple through the economy like autos, especially when you think that we seemed to just be beginning to get a head of steam in a market that remains half of what it was just eight years ago. That's the third negative.

Fourth negative: Remember how Monday we fell in love with semiconductors that went into cellphones and automobiles? We celebrated the merger of NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) - Get Report and Freescale (FSL) to become the fourth-largest semi and the one that's dominant in the connected auto?

Guess what we left out?

We left out the sharp tail-off in the purchase of personal computers and tablets. On Tuesday, Best Buy (BBY) - Get Report reported a pretty good number with excellent big-screen TVs and cellphones. That's a pretty good script. But then Best Buy lowered the boom on tablets, which are suffering "material declines." Ouch!

That's just plain terrible.

You lump that in with what the weak numbers out of Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) - Get Report last week -- I am still stunned by those -- and you are beginning to realize that there's something wrong in the PC/tablet world and that's going to affect a lot of stocks. For example, you have to wonder if Microsoft (MSFT) - Get Report and Intel (INTC) - Get Report could have trouble making their numbers. Both stocks performed poorly after their last quarters. Don't you have to think that the commentary from both Hewlett-Packard and Best Buy indicate that things have only gotten worse in that segment of tech?

The action in other suppliers to personal computers -- namely Western Digital (WDC) - Get Report, Seagate Technology (STX) - Get Report and Micron Technology (MU) - Get Report, all of which are being hammered -- seems to signal that this portion of tech's going in the wrong direction for certain. It's a real roadblock to record Nasdaq (QQQ) - Get Report highs and I respect that we can't be complacent about such a large segment of tech. I'm not saying it's going down, I am not yelling "timber," I am just saying I don't like what I am hearing from the key customers of these major industries.

Fifth negative: While I am heartened by the actual plants -- no more green shoots -- we are seeing over in Europe, namely stronger retail sales and some good purchasing managers reports, I am aghast at what's happening in China. First trips to the Macau casinos are down an astounding 49% year over year. The Communist government has really cracked down on inveterate and degenerate gambling and that's not good news for all who cater to that behavior.

And have you seen Alibaba (BABA) - Get Report?

It's now below the deal price. I am beginning to think that the people who brought this company public may have done so right before the Chinese consumer hit the skids. There seems to be some real regulatory issues there, too. Whether it is because the Communist Party has gone Communist and hates conspicuous consumption, or the slowdown in world trade has caused some sort of stealth unemployment issue in a country that's always supposed to be at full employment, China's just not contributing at all to worldwide growth.

The good news? The party knows that things are slow and it's cutting rates. The bad news? It ain't working yet.

Sixth worry? Unlike many of the commentators who think that it's important that oil stabilize here, if you want the world's economies to get stronger, you need oil to keep falling, because the price at the pump seems to have started climbing again. Now we have seen a host of equity deals that show me the oil and gas companies aren't nearly as ailing as many thought, but we do want to see the nation at $2 a gallon or we lose a key prop to the nascent recovery. Sure, maybe that makes us less nervous about what the Fed will do, but I want real growth, not Fed-induced growth, and gasoline going higher doesn't fit the bulls' thesis any more.

Now one day does not a bear make. There's tons that is good. Palo Alto Networks (PANW) - Get Report, the leader of the cybersecurity stock surge, performed excellently Tuesday after an initial downdraft, which is logical given its incredibly strong numbers. AutoZone (AZO) - Get Report delivered a fine performance and I would be buying that one aggressively. Best Buy did have a better-than-expected quarter.

Still though, we know we've had a huge rose-colored-glass rally going on and without the glasses we see some pimples and some crow's feet, even with extensive National Pancake Day make-up. We need to see a bit of a shakeout because it can't be this easy. We need to see some fear in this market. We need for people to recognize that the Nasdaq high isn't as inevitable as it seemed just a day ago. Once that fear and loathing comes back to the market, we will be ready to take out the old highs. Until then though, stay skeptical and vigilant as you always must be after a gigantic run.

Editor's Note: This article was originally published at 4:12 p.m. EST on Real Money on March 3.

At the time of publication, Jim Cramer's charitable trust Action Alerts PLUS was long GM and WFC.

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