How to Play It Safe With Stock ETFs
NEW YORK (ETF Expert) -- Transportation bellwether UPS (UPS) - Get Report reduced its full-year profit forecast due to a weak economy. Fast food giant Yum! Brands (YUM) - Get Report experienced declines in earnings as well as revenue. Meanwhile, financial behemoth JPMorgan Chase (JPM) - Get Report managed to cover up waning revenue from mortgages and trading with sleight-of-hand accounting.
Yet, some folks in the financial media insist that U.S. stocks are soaring on fundamentals.
In truth, profitability and sales across major corporations are both flat. They're decelerating, much like the global economy. There is only one driver in the U.S. stock car and that's the
Federal Reserve
. Or as a friend of mine put it, "The Fed's not going to taper... you gotta be in stocks!"
Back in late May, when Ben Bernanke first brought up the notion of tapering, I expressed that the chairman was merely floating a trial balloon. There were plenty of folks who disagreed with me; they believed (and maybe still believe) that we are transitioning to an economy that can stand on its own two feet.
However, on Wednesday Bernanke back-tracked by serving up more stimulus. Indeed, maintaining a policy of zero percent "overnight" rates while simultaneously gobbling up most of the supply of longer-term treasury debt is not a ringing endorsement for the economic improvement camp.
Regardless of the facts about the macro-economic picture or the facts about the micro-economic corporate picture is the reality of the investing picture. Specifically, investors are as addicted to ultra-low interest rates as are consumers.
And when you're addicted to something, nothing else matters. For example, you could hardly find an advocate for Japanese equities until the Japanese government/Bank of Japan (BOJ) proposed a quantitative easing program that is effectively 3x as large as what the Fed is doing. Ever since, one of the hottest investments on the planet has been
WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity (DJX)
/
Similarly, there's an argument to be made that China has been responsible by refraining from the loose monetary policy game. Some might even describe the People's Bank of China as having tightened the reins. Recent economic data have been so weak, however, that bad news is becoming good news. Intrepid investors who see China stimulus in the near future began revisiting funds like
SPDR S&P China
(GXC) - Get Report
in late June.
Aggressive ETF enthusiasts may choose to invest in assets solely based on which countries or regions are engaging in the most stimulus or the most rate manipulation. For those folks, there may be nothing more attractive than the
S&P 500 SPDR Trust
(SPY) - Get Report
or DXJ.
For myself and for clients of Pacific Park Financial, however, I'm
playing it safer with defensive equities
.
I like
SPDR Select Sector Consumer Staples
(XLP) - Get Report
,
SPDR Select Sector Health Care
(XLV) - Get Report
, defensive consumer stand-out
Market Vectors Retail
(RTH) - Get Report
,
PowerShares Pharmaceuticals
(PJP) - Get Report
as well as
iShares DJ Aerospace and Defense
(ITA) - Get Report
. The Dreamliner fire at Heathrow airport aside, assets that are less dependent on investor addiction are less likely to crash-n-burn.
This article was written by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.
Disclosure Statement: ETF Expert is a website that makes the world of ETFs easier to understand. Gary Gordon, Pacific Park Financial and/or its clients may hold positions in ETFs, mutual funds and investment assets mentioned. The commentary does not constitute individualized investment advice. The opinions offered are not personalized recommendations to buy, sell or hold securities. At times, issuers of exchange-traded products compensate Pacific Park Financial or its subsidiaries for advertising at the ETF Expert website. ETF Expert content is created independently of any advertising relationships. You may review additional ETF Expert at the site.
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