5 Car Stocks to Buy for Engine-Revving Gains in March
BALTIMORE (Stockpickr) -- The car business has been going gangbusters lately. And even if you've missed the trend so far, this month might be just the right time to test drive a car stock.
In effect, this is an economic environment that's purpose-built to sell vehicles. Interest rates are lower than ever at the exact same time that the U.S. vehicle fleet is, on average, older than ever. And sure enough, car sales are climbing. Total U.S. auto sales have ballooned by more than 60% since the beginning of 2010, car-related stocks have been climbing higher in kind.
But the rally in the automotive sector isn't running out of gas here.
A handful of the biggest automotive stocks are getting close to breakout territory. To take full advantage today, we're turning to the charts for a technical look at five car trades to buy for gains in March.
For the unfamiliar, technical analysis is a way for investors to quantify qualitative factors, such as investor psychology, based on a stock's price action and trends. Once the domain of cloistered trading teams on Wall Street, technicals can help top traders make consistently profitable trades and can aid fundamental investors in better planning their stock execution.
Without further ado, let's take a look at five technical setups worth trading now.
Ford Motor
Up first is Ford Motor (F) - Get Report. We just took a look at Ford last week, when shares were looking ready to make a move higher. Sure enough, Ford has rallied almost 5% in the intervening days, beating the S&P 500 by nearly triple. Thing is, Ford's move doesn't look close to being over yet -- and you don't need to be an expert trader to see why.
The price action in this big Detroit automaker is about as simple as it gets.
Ford has been bouncing its way higher in a well-defined uptrend since shares bottomed back in October. And with Ford's fifth bounce off of support confirmed at the end of last week, shares look primed to continue their upward trajectory. Shares of Ford still have further to move up within their trend channel, but for patient traders, the next bounce off of support should make for an even better entry from a risk/reward standpoint. In the meantime, consider a "starter position" here.
The long-term bullish picture in Ford is being confirmed right now by momentum, which has been in an uptrend of its own since the price channel in Ford started. That uptrend in 14-day RSI, our momentum gauge, indicates that buying pressure is continuing to build in shares beneath the surface. Put simply, Ford is a "buy the dips stock."
Toyota Motor
The gains aren't just coming from Detroit right now. $231 billion Japanese automobile maker Toyota Motor (TM) - Get Report is another big car manufacturer that's in rally mode right now. Since October, this stock has rallied more than 25%. And just like Ford, Toyota is bouncing its way higher in a textbook uptrending channel. As shares bounce higher off of support this week, it makes sense to buy the bounce.
Waiting for that bounce is important for two key reasons: It's the spot where shares have the furthest to move up before they hit resistance, and it's the spot where the risk is the least (because shares have the least room to move lower before you know you're wrong). Remember, all trend lines do eventually break, but by actually waiting for the bounce to happen first, you're ensuring TM can actually still catch a bid along that line before you put your money on shares.
If you decide to buy Toyota here, I'd recommend parking a protective stop on the other side of the 50-day moving average -- that line has been a more conservative proxy for support on the way up.
CarMax
At first glance, it looks like car retailer CarMax (KMX) - Get Report hasn't done much in 2015. After all, shares are down 3.6% since the calendar flipped to January. But zoom out a bit, and the picture in this used car giant suddenly looks a whole lot more constructive. KMX is consolidating sideways in a rectangle pattern -- and it's that sideways churn that makes it tradable here.
The rectangle pattern in KMX gets its name because the pattern basically "boxes in" shares between those support and resistance lines. For CarMax, the levels to watch are resistance up at $68 and support just above $62. It pays to be reactionary with this price chart, after all, rectangles are "if/then patterns." Put a different way, if CarMax breaks out through resistance at $68, then traders have a buy signal. Otherwise, if the stock violates support at $62, then the high-probability trade is a sell.
Consolidation setups such as this one are common after big moves, and since KMX's prior trend was up before shares started chugging sideways, a breakout above $68 is the likely outcome. Still, it's important to wait for the breakout to happen before you play this trade. Buyers and sellers haven't figured out who's in charge yet.
BorgWarner
$13 billion auto parts supplier BorgWarner (BWA) - Get Report is a stock that's in breakout mode this month, even if it hasn't looked like it. Actually, BWA spend most of the last few months forming a textbook double bottom pattern, a reversal setup that looks just like it sounds. The buy signal came on a push above prior resistance at $58.50. And now, a "throwback" is giving traders a second chance at a low-risk entry.
A throwback happens when a stock breaks out, and then moves back down to test newfound support at that former price ceiling level -- in this case at $58.50. And while throwbacks look ominous, they're actually constructive for stock prices because they re-verify the stock's ability to catch a bid at support. For that reason, it's best to think of a throwback as a buying opportunity in BWA, not a red flag.
That's a big part of why this stock caught such a forceful bid in yesterday's session – sellers were nowhere to be seen as BWA shoves up through $60. Now looks like a good time to be a buyer, just keep a tight protective stop in place.
Ryder System
Last up is truck rental stock Ryder System (R) - Get Report. While this $5 billion logistics stock doesn't build cars, it does share in the same tailwinds that are boosting car sales right now -- just on the commercial side of the fence. As transport companies look to take advantage of cheap money to expand their fleets, they're turning to Ryder's leased fleet as a stopgap. And that's pushing shares close to a breakout today.
Ryder has spent the last several months forming an inverse head and shoulders pattern. You can spot the inverse head and shoulders by looking for two swing lows that bottom out around the same level (the shoulders), separated by a bigger trough called the head; the buy signal comes on the breakout above the pattern’s “neckline” level. That's the $95 level in Ryder.
Even thought the price action isn't exactly textbook here in Ryder (the head and shoulders is more common at the end of a downtrend, not after a long sideways churn), the trading implications are exactly the same. The bottom of the right shoulder at $90 is a logical place to park a stop in Ryder.
Don't be early on this trade. Ryder needs to close above $95 to trigger a buy signal.
Author had no positions in stocks mentioned.