5 Big Stocks That Want to Pay You More in 2015: Dividend Preview

These dividend stocks look ready to hike their payouts to shareholders.
By Jonas Elmerraji ,

BALTIMORE (Stockpickr) -- Income investors have been on edge in 2015. With the Federal Reserve flirting with the idea of raising interest rates this year, there's a real potential that high-yield stocks could get knocked lower.

It's almost enough to make you forget that, compared with the other alternatives on the market today, we're in one of the most favorable environments in history for dividend stocks.

As I write, U.S. companies have more cash on their balance sheets than ever before -- and they're handing that cash to investors in record amounts. Post-recession, the average dividend yield in the S&P 500 has been higher than any time since the mid-1990s. In fact, the spread between the S&P 500's dividend yield and the yield of 10-year treasuries has never been higher for a sustained stretch of time.

Put simply, dividend stocks aren't just one of the best options for income investors right now -- they're one of the only options. But to find the biggest benefit from dividends, it's not enough to simply buy names with big payouts today. You've got to think about what they'll be paying tomorrow too.

So instead of chasing yield, we'll try to step in front of the next round of stock payout hikes.

For our purposes, that "crystal ball" is composed of a few factors: namely a solid balance sheet, low payout ratio and a history of dividend hikes. While those items don't guarantee dividend announcements in the next month or three, they do dramatically increase the odds that management will hike their cash payouts to shareholders. And they've helped us grab onto dividend hikes with a high success rate in the past.

Without further ado, here's a look at five big stocks that could be about to increase their dividend payments in the next quarter. Think of it as your dividend preview.

Johnson & Johnson

Up first is Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) - Get Report, most people's idea of a textbook "dividend stock". At $278 billion in market value, JNJ is the biggest health care company on the planet, with a hand in everything from Band-Aids and Tylenol to prescription pharmaceuticals and medical devices. Johnson & Johnson currently pays out a 70-cent quarterly dividend, which adds up to a 2.8% yield at current market prices.

Johnson & Johnson's huge degree of revenue diversification is one of its biggest strengths. The firm benefits from deep margins in pharmaceuticals and medical devices, and it owns a supremely stable product lineup on the consumer side. That combination means that JNJ is able to produce big profits while paring down its exposure to issues like patent losses. Last year, drugs and devices were split nearly evenly, each contributing approximately 40% of sales. Consumer products made up the remaining 20%.

Because of that sales mix, Johnson & Johnson's business throws off some huge free cash flows. That, in turn, translates into a balance sheet that's in excellent shape. JNJ currently carries more than $14 billion in net cash, a hefty cash cushion that helps to smooth out the firm's dividend paying abilities in 2015. Look for JNJ to announce a dividend hike next month.

General Motors

2015 is starting off on a strong note for Detroit-based automaker General Motors (GM) - Get Report. Since the calendar flipped to January, GM has rallied more than 9.6%, stomping the broad market's barely-breakeven price action over the same stretch. A lot of that upside comes from the fact that GM announced a plan to return at least $5 billion to shareholders through buybacks by next year -- and management committed to return excess cash directly to investors.

Dividend payouts have been a big part of GM's shareholder yield since it emerged from bankruptcy; shares currently yield 3.1% thanks to a 30-cent quarterly cash payout.

General Motors owns 11 car brands that sell all over the world; the firm's 18% share of the enormous U.S. new car market makes it the league leader. Post-bankruptcy, GM has been able to address many of the issues that put the firm in harm's way during the financial crisis. Renegotiated union contracts mean that GM is actually sustainably profitable, tumbling oil prices are helping to pick up sales of the firm's most lucrative trucks and SUVs and most important, GM is actually building attractive, high quality cars again.

GM has a big stake in rates staying low -- and that goes beyond its dividend yield. Low interest rates mean that borrowing for a new car loan is more affordable than ever, and that's helped to drive the average new car price to more than $32,000 according to Kelley Blue Book. As long as low rates persist from a historical standpoint, GM's record profitability should too. And that means very good things for dividend investors.

Phillips 66

In the last few years, there's been a big shift for energy companies to shed their midstream and downstream operations. That's how we ended up with standalone firms like Phillips 66 (PSX) - Get Report, the result of a spinoff from ConocoPhillips (COP) - Get Report back in 2012. As oil prices continue to plummet, that's looking like a less prescient move for exploration and production firms.

Phillips 66 is an independent refiner and gas station franchisor, and it also owns a lucrative chemical business and more than 62,000 miles of pipeline. PSX owns 15 refineries spread all over the country, but it's been emphasizing its larger-margin businesses lately in a push to boost margins that just are there in the refining game. One side-effect of that change is less exposure to commodity risk.

From a historical standpoint, PSX already has a good track record of returning value to shareholders in its short lifetime as an independent company. The firm's balance sheet currently carries $6.79 billion in net cash and investments, which covers approximately 17% of the firm's current market capitalization. That's a remarkable lack of balance sheet leverage for such a capital-intense business. The energy sector may not be a popular place to put money right now, but PSX looks cheap nonetheless.

Look for PSX to part with some of that extra wherewithal in the form of dividends. In the meantime, the firm pays a 50-cent quarterly dividend check that adds up to a 2.7% yield.

PG&E

Few things go together quite like dividends and utility stocks. In that sense, forecasting a dividend hike in PG&E (PCG) - Get Report is a little bit of a "gimme." But that doesn't change the fact that this $24 billion power and gas utility looks ready to cut a fatter check to investors. The firm currently pays a 45.5-cent quarterly dividend, which adds up to a 3.4% annual yield.

PG&E serves 5.3 million electric and 4.4 million gas customers in Central and Northern California. That's an attractive market, in large part because the aggressive rate-setting done by state regulators to incentivize much-needed improvements in state infrastructure. PG&E generates power to cover approximately 40% of its own energy needs, through a portfolio of 120 power plans across the state. The firm unloaded its unregulated businesses about a decade ago, giving it a predictable income stream that's tied to an equally predictable dividend payout.

The big black cloud over PG&E in recent years has been the San Bruno gas pipeline explosion in 2010, which opened the firm to (deserved) regulatory scrutiny and significant costs. But the firm expects to have those issues finally resolved this year, opening the door to a dividend hike this summer. PCG hasn't increased its shareholder payout since 2010. Once the black clouds clear, it'll be overdue.

Macy's

Last up on our list of potential dividend hikers is department store retailer Macy's (M) - Get Report. Macy's may have the lowest dividend yield on our list, at just 2%, but it looks ready to up the ante on its cash payout to shareholders. Macy's has been paying a 31.25-cent per share dividend for the last four straight quarters now, so if history is any indication, we'll see a dividend hike in May.

Macy's operates approximately 840 department stores under the Macy's and Bloomingdale's banners, laying claim to two of the most historic (and valuable) retail chains in the U.S. The firm has been riding a recent upswing in consumer discretionary spending, benefitting from its upscale positioning and revamped merchandising initiatives. Expansion in Macy's private-label business offers a big opportunity for margin growth and differentiation. As exclusive products find more real estate on store shelves, Macy's starts to become an operating leverage story.

From a financial standpoint, Macy's has the resources to increase its dividend payouts. Right now, the firm's payout ratio sits at just 13.5%, the lowest level we've seen since the firm's prior dividend hike. The firm's first quarter earnings call in May looks like just the opportunity to announce a bigger dividend for shareholders.

Author had no positions in stocks mentioned.

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