2010: A Year's Stock-Picking in Review
MILLBURN, N.J. (Stockpickr) -- We are in the homestretch of 2010, which means it's time to take a look back at the year about to end and tally up our performance for the year. I have two objectives here: First, I will review my personal performance grading criteria. Second, I will take a look back at some of the work I've done over the past year on Stockpickr and TheStreet and see how my reccomendations have fared.
Let's start with my grading system, which incorporates both absolute and relative performance measures. (Please note: Performance should be calculated after you subtract all fees and expenses.)
Grade A: Your rate of return substantially outperformed your benchmark by more than 5 percentage points.
Grade B: Return performance beat your benchmark by at least 0.25 percentage points but less than 5 percentage points.
Grade C: Return performance met your benchmark (or was within a reasonable margin of +/-0.25 percentage points).
Grade D: Return performance was below your benchmark by at least 0.25 percentage points but less than 5 percentage points.
Grade F: Return performance was substantially below your benchmark, by more than 5 percentage points.
Add a "+" to your letter grade if you were profitable and a "-" if you lost money.
My grade for 2010 was an A+, barring any unforeseen market crash in the next two weeks. You can take a closer look at my performance on my
LakeView Asset Management
Web site. 2010 performance will be updated sometime in January.
Related:
2011 Stock Predictions and Outlook
Now let's look at some of the picks (and pans) from my articles in the last year.
I set the tone for 2010 using my research on the theme of
midterm elections
. I noted that historically, January of a midterm election year has been a losing month and February and March have been positive. I recommended that after a month of profit-taking in January, investors might consider putting money back to work for the next couple of months. As it turned out, after a January down 3.70%, the
S&P 500
rose in February by 2.85% and March by 5.88%. The index reached a high in April, which was not eclipsed until November.
Also in that article, I recommended looking for a post election surge. While that surge actually began before the election, as the
was well in hand according to the pollsters, since election day the SPX has risen approximately 4%.
From a stock-picking point of view, there were two major themes which played out in 2010 and could well extend into 2011. The first was the
mobile telecommunications/smartphone boom
. One of the year's most profitable companies and an outstanding stock performer was
Apple
(AAPL) - Get Report
, a member of my
on Stockpickr.
Source: Telemet Orion
The second major theme of the year was a resurgence of the U.S.
. In April I wrote a two-part series of the automobile industry looking at all aspects of
manufacturing and retailing
in part I and
auto parts and servicing
in part II. Then in August, I was
Ford
(F) - Get Report
warrants (F-WS) for my clients at LakeView Asset Management and myself personally. Those warrants have traded over 80% higher since that article was published.
Source: Telemet Orion
In my
article, I concluded that
Netflix
(NFLX) - Get Report
and
Coinstar
(CSTR) - Get Report
would provide the best stock-picking opportunities. Since then, both stocks have been on a tear, with the Oscar going to Netflix, which has almost doubled in that period, making it one of the best-performing stocks, along with Apple. for 2010.
Source: Telemet Orion
If there was ever a
, it was
Green Mountain Coffee Roasters
(GMCR)
. Looking at the stock's year-to-date chart, the fad phase seems to have come and gone for this momentum favorite.
Source: Telemet Orion
Did you get the message when I said to
? Even though gold and gold stocks have surged since this summer, it is not too late to get in. A portion of your portfolio should be in gold -- physical, miners or producers.
Source: Telemet Orion
My picks haven't all been successes. In my
, I thought
DineEquity
(DIN) - Get Report
was too richly priced, but I was wrong, and the stock performed quite well since then. Of course, so have
Denny's
(DENN) - Get Report
and
Cracker Barrel
(CBRL) - Get Report
. I guess that breakfast is still the most important meal of the day.
Source: Telemet Orion
I
with
(GOOG) - Get Report
earlier this year over my concerns that management was not able effectively to lead the company in the future. Although I had very large gains in the stock at the time, my sales may have been premature - or at the very least ill-timed. The company's Android system is a hot commodity in the mobile communications boom, and I'm considering repurchasing the stock. Luckily my sale was not all for a loss, since I used some of the proceeds to purchase shares in
Baidu
(BIDU) - Get Report
, Google's Chinese competitor, which have performed quite well.
Source: Telemet Orion
-- Written by Scott Rothbort in Millburn, N.J.
RELATED LINKS:
>>Two Pair Trades for Absolute Returns
>>3 Heavily Shorted Stocks That Could Get Squeezed
>>10 Top-Ranked Dividend Champion Stocks
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At the time of publication, Rothbort was long AAPL and GLD stock and calls, long F warrants, and long BIDU, CBRL and CSTR stock.
Scott Rothbort has over 25 years of experience in the financial services industry. He is the Founder and President of
, a registered investment advisor specializing in customized separate account management for high net worth individuals. In addition, he is the founder of
, an educational social networking site; and, publisher of
The LakeView Restaurant & Food Chain Report
. Rothbort is also a Term Professor of Finance at Seton Hall University's Stillman School of Business, where he teaches courses in finance and economics. He is the Chief Market Strategist for The Stillman School of Business and the co-supervisor of the Center for Securities Trading and Analysis.
Mr. Rothbort is a regular contributor to
TheStreet.com's RealMoney Silver
website and has frequently appeared as a professional guest on
Bloomberg Radio
,
Bloomberg Television
,
Fox Business Network
,
CNBC Television
,
TheStreet.com TV
and local television. As an expert in the field of derivatives and exchange-traded funds (ETFs), he frequently speaks at industry conferences. He is an ETF advisory board member for the Information Management Network, a global organizer of institutional finance and investment conferences. In addition, he is widely quoted in interviews in the printed press and on the internet.
Mr. Rothbort founded LakeView Asset Management in 2002. Prior to that, since 1991, he worked at Merrill Lynch, where he held a wide variety of senior-level management positions, including Business Director for the Global Equity Derivative Department, Global Director for Equity Swaps Trading and Risk Management, and Director for secured funding and collateral management for the Global Capital Markets Group and Corporate Treasury. Prior to working at Merrill Lynch, within the financial services industry, he worked for County Nat West Securities and Morgan Stanley, where he had international assignments in Tokyo, Hong Kong and London. He began his career working at Price Waterhouse from 1982 to 1984.
Mr. Rothbort received an M.B.A., majoring in Finance and International Business from the Stern School of Business, New York University, in 1992, and a B.Sc. in Economics, majoring in Accounting, from the Wharton School of Business, University of Pennsylvania, in 1982. He is also a graduate of the prestigious Stuyvesant High School in New York City. Mr. Rothbort is married to Layni Horowitz Rothbort, a real estate attorney, and together they have five children.