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It's
important to tell you what this book is not. It is not a book that
will give you a paint-by-numbers approach to wealth. It is not a
book about some statistically perfect formula. We believe many of
those kinds of books are inexcusable sucker-plays aimed at taking
a little more money from you and putting it in the pocket of the
authors.
We've
set out to do something different. We want to make you smarter and
wiser. We want to give you the savvy that the pros guard so jealously.
We want you to have the ammunition to forge your own successful
path in an arena that is not nearly so simple to conquer as some
of the pundits would have you believe.
This
is also not a book that defends the bull market or declares that
the Dow should be at 100,000. But hyperventilating nervous Nellies
will not hold sway in this book either. Though the stock market
has enjoyed a remarkable run, we still believe that over the long
term the market has tremendous strength. We will not tell you how
to cash in on the coming crash or instruct you on the merits of
gold or other "safety" commodities. We believe the technology
revolution has revolutionized American business. And while there
will always be bumps and periods of uncertainty, we believe the
stock market will reflect that revolution for some time to come.
What's
behind our conviction? Much of what's driven the market boom of
the last 20 years has been the diminished impact of the business
cycle. Expansions have grown longer and deeper, while recessions
have become narrower and shorter. The resulting long-run growth
has created a New Economy, an economy that's forcing stock market
analysts to redefine how they view investments and long-term earnings.
Dismissed
as blarney by old Wall Street hands, the New Economy rests on several
real changes. Productivity gains have improved profits while keeping
inflation largely in check. Corporations, benefiting from improved
technology, have become more adept at utilizing global capacity
to evade the problems that arise with market tightness. Toss in
increasing fiscal discipline among the developed countries (take
the U.S. budget surplus, for one), and you have a recipe for a lengthy
expansion.
Technology
has played the starring role in the New Economy's emergence. The
Internet has helped keep inflation at bay by slashing costs and
improving the efficiency of individuals and corporations conducting
transactions on it. Technology itself has benefited from rising
productivity and healthy competition, with the cost of hardware
and software falling sharply for consumers and business and keeping
inflation in check.
The
New Economy paradigm may not spell an endless period of growth,
but we've seen the dips in the United States become less pronounced.
And low unemployment and low inflation have now coexisted for several
years, leaving the economists dumbfoundedmuch as they were
during the impossible days of 1970s stagflation, when high inflation
and high unemployment persisted together for a time.
Given
the backdrop of benign inflation, a technology-driven productivity
revolution, and sound fiscal policy, it becomes easier to see why
a number of high-growth companies receive mind-boggling valuations.
Of course, there will be corrections. And, as we've seen, not every
wunderkind of the Internet will justify its valuation. Most won't.
But the Internet and new technology have combined to fuel a remarkable
period of growth that looks to continue, even if it is interrupted
by moments of nervousness.
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